‘Same nightmare week after week’: UK firms fed up with post-Brexit EU trade
-Exporters fear Northern Ireland protocol row will spur trade war with Brussels, making an already difficult job even harder

“一周接一周的噩梦”：英国公司受够了脱欧后的欧盟贸易
——出口商担心，北爱尔兰协定争端将引发与布鲁塞尔的贸易战，使本已困难的业务更加困难


(Mark Brearley of Kaymet, a manufacturer of tea trolleys, trays and hotplates, says leaving the EU has increased his costs and made selling goods abroad more difficult.)

（Kaymet公司的马克·布雷尔利是茶具台、托盘和烤盘的制造商，他说，脱欧增加了他的成本，使他的产品销往海外更加困难了。）
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Mark Brearley is still frustrated by Brexit. More than a year from Britain’s formal withdrawal from the EU, on terms agreed by Boris Johnson’s government, exporting the goods his company produces hasn’t got any easier for the London-based manufacturer.

马克·布雷尔利仍对英国脱欧感到沮丧。英国根据鲍里斯·约翰逊政府同意的条款正式退出欧盟已经一年多了，但对这家总部位于伦敦的制造商来说，出口其公司生产的产品并没有变得更容易。

Describing it as “the same nightmare week after week”, he says: “A lot more time is spent with things going wrong. The EU really feels like the hardest place in the world to ship things to sometimes.”

他将其描述为“一周接一周的噩梦”，并表示：“更多的时间花在了事情搞砸上。有时候，欧盟真的感觉是世界上最难卖出货物的地方。”

For the past seven decades the company Brearley runs, Kaymet, has made and sold tea trolleys, trays and hotplates from its factory just off the Old Kent Road to customers including the British royal family. It’s thought that Kaymet’s wares were used by the queen – celebrating her platinum jubilee this week – on her coronation world tour. The company sells goods in 40 countries across the world.

在过去的70年里，布雷尔利经营的公司Kaymet从老肯特路附近的工厂生产茶具台、托盘和烤盘，并向包括英国王室在内的客户销售。人们认为Kaymet的产品曾是女王（她在本周要庆祝她的铂金纪念日）在她的加冕世界之旅中使用的。该公司的产品销往全球40个国家。

But leaving the EU has added to Brearley’s costs and makes selling items abroad more difficult. “There’s loads of things I could’ve been doing if it wasn’t for these problems. We could do things that take us forward, rather than back,” he says.

但脱离欧盟增加了布雷尔利的成本，并使产品销往海外更加困难。“如果不是这些问题，我可以做很多事情。我们本可以做一些让我们前进的事情，而不是倒退，”他说。

Official figures show that UK exports to the EU remain significantly below pre-Brexit levels, despite some recovery from an initial plunge in January 2021 at the end of the transition period. Exports had fallen 40% on the month as traders adapted to new red tape and border delays, but came back to finish last year down 11% compared with 2018 – the year used by the Office for National Statistics as the most reliable comparison, before Brexit stockpiling and the Covid pandemic influenced trade flows.

官方数据显示，英国对欧盟的出口仍明显低于英国脱欧前的水平，尽管从2021年1月过渡期结束时的最初大幅下降中有所复苏。当月出口下降了40%，但由于贸易商适应了新的繁琐手续和边境延误，与2018年相比，去年结束时出口下降回升到了11%——英国国家统计局将英国脱欧储备和新冠疫情影响贸易流之前的这一年作为最可靠的比较年份。

However, concern is mounting that fresh Brexit roadblocks are looming as the government threatens to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol, which covers trade between Great Britain, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Despite Boris Johnson claiming to have “got Brexit done”, his government now views this central plank of his deal as broken.

然而，越来越多的人担心，随着政府威胁撕毁涵盖英国、北爱尔兰和爱尔兰之间贸易的《北爱尔兰协议》，新的脱欧路障正在逼近。尽管鲍里斯·约翰逊宣称“完成了脱欧”，但他的政府现在认为他的协议的这一核心条款已经失效。

“There’s a sense of, ‘Oh God, here we go again,”’ says Brearley, who worries that Kaymet will suffer if the EU responds with fresh trade barriers.

布雷尔利说：“有一种‘哦，上帝，我们又要来一遍’的感觉。”他担心，如果欧盟以新的贸易壁垒作为回应，Kaymet将遭受损失。

Raoul Ruparel, who was Theresa May’s special adviser on Europe during the first round of Brexit negotiations, says companies could start dusting down their old no-deal Brexit plans if the situation worsens.

在英国脱欧第一轮谈判中担任特蕾莎·梅欧洲问题特别顾问的拉乌尔·鲁帕雷尔表示，如果形势恶化，企业可能会开始重新制定它们之前的无协议脱欧计划。

“Any business will tell you it’s unhelpful,” he says. “In this case, a lot of them are just getting on with it and they just have to make the best of it. But what they don’t want is constantly changing trade rules with the UK and the EU.”

他说：“任何企业都会告诉你，这没有帮助。在这种情况下，很多企业只是在继续，它们只是要充分利用它。但它们不想要的是不断改变与英国和欧盟的贸易规则。”
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Despite business concerns of retaliation from Brussels, the government has insisted that pushing ahead is the right thing to do. “The UK’s solution to fix the problems with the protocol and protect the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement will cut costs for businesses, remove unnecessary paperwork and protect UK and EU markets,” a spokesperson said.

尽管商界担心布鲁塞尔的报复，但政府坚称，推进改革是正确的做法。一位发言人表示：“英国解决协议问题、保护《贝尔法斯特（耶稣受难日）协议》的方案，将削减企业成本，消除不必要的手续，并保护英国和欧盟市场。”

There could, however, be economic costs. Steffan Ball, the former chair of Philip Hammond’s council of advisers when he was chancellor, and now chief UK economist at Goldman Sachs, says the most likely outcome is a “compromise deal”. Still, risks of “significant economic impacts” loom if one isn’t reached, he warns.

然而，这可能会有经济代价。菲利普·哈蒙德担任财政大臣时的顾问委员会主席、现任高盛首席英国经济学家斯特凡·鲍尔表示，最有可能的结果是达成一项“妥协协议”。不过，他警告说，如果不这样做，“重大经济影响”的风险就会逼近。

“Back in 2020, the Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR] estimated that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would reduce the level of real GDP by an additional 2% in the long run. In addition, the escalation in tensions raises the prospect of a trade war, with potential tariffs imposed on exports to the EU,” he says. “But this outcome is very unlikely in our view.”

他说：“早在2020年，预算责任办公室估计，从长远来看，‘无协议’脱欧将使实际GDP水平额外下降2%。此外，紧张局势的升级增加了贸易战的可能性，可能会对出口到欧盟的产品征收关税。但在我们看来，出现这种结果的可能性很小。”

Even with the current deal, the OBR – the Treasury’s economics forecaster – expects Brexit to cost the economy 4% of GDP over 15 years, double the long-term impact of the scarring from the Covid pandemic.

即使有目前的协议，英国财政部的经济预测机构预算责任办公室预计，英国脱欧将在15年内使经济损失占GDP的4%，是新冠肺炎疫情造成的长期影响的两倍。
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Trade figures suggest UK exporters are already feeling the pinch. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, which tracks trends in global trade, goods exports in March from advanced economies – including the UK, US, Japan and euro area – were 2% above the monthly average for 2018, after adjusting for inflation. In the UK, however, real exports were almost 22% down in the same month.

贸易数据显示，英国出口商已经感受到压力。根据跟踪全球贸易趋势的荷兰经济政策分析局的数据，3月份，包括英国、美国、日本和欧元区在内的发达经济体的商品出口，经通胀调整后，比2018年的月平均水平高出2%。然而，在英国，当月的实际出口下降了近22%。

Some sectors have suffered a more dramatic hit than others. Exports of clothing and footwear to the EU are both down by almost 60% compared with 2018. Meat exports have plunged by almost 25%, vegetables and fruit by 40%, while car exports are down by more than a quarter.

一些行业受到的冲击比其他行业更严重。与2018年相比，对欧盟的服装和鞋类出口都下降了近60%。肉类出口下降了近25%，蔬菜和水果下降了40%，而汽车出口下降了超过四分之一。

Paul Alger, director of international affairs at the UK Fashion and Textile Association, says the outsize hit for his industry is probably because many of the items sold by UK firms do not qualify for the post-Brexit trade deal. Under its terms, goods must meet “rule of origin” requirements, which require a certain proportion of an item to be domestically produced to benefit from tariff-free access. However, much of the clothing sold by UK retailers is made in Asia or the US, making it ineligible.

英国时装与纺织协会国际事务主管保罗·阿尔杰表示，该行业遭受的巨大打击可能是因为英国企业出售的许多商品不符合英国脱欧后的贸易协议。根据其条款，商品必须符合“原产地规则”的要求，该要求要求一种商品的一定比例是国内生产的，才能享受免征关税的待遇。然而，英国零售商销售的大部分服装都是在亚洲或美国生产的，因此不符合资格。

“They’re also finding that customs are very difficult in some countries. Particularly around labelling,” said Alger. “A lot of companies will say we didn’t realise how good a deal we had for moving goods from the UK to the EU until we actually left.”

“他们还发现，一些国家的习惯非常难以满足。尤其是在标签方面，”阿尔杰说。“很多公司会说，直到我们真的离开欧盟，我们才意识到我们把货物从英国卖往欧盟是一笔多么‘好’的交易。”

In one example of shifting trade patterns, Marks & Spencer is setting up a warehouse to handle EU deliveries of clothing and homewares to reduce the impact of tariffs and export costs. The British high street stalwart said last week that Brexit had cost it £29.6m in profits and £15m in lost trade.

在贸易模式转变的一个例子中，玛莎百货正在建立一个仓库，处理发往欧盟的服装和家居用品，以减少关税和出口成本的影响。这家英国商业街的中坚企业上周表示，英国脱欧令其损失了2960万英镑的利润和1500万英镑的贸易损失。

Danny Hodgson runs Rivet & Hide, which sells quality men’s clothing from stores in London and Manchester as well as online. He says EU sales, which he spent a decade building, plunged by half in the first month after Brexit and never recovered.

丹尼·霍奇森经营着“Rivet & Hide”，在伦敦和曼彻斯特的商店以及网上销售优质男装。他说，他花了十年时间打造的欧盟销售额在英国脱欧后的第一个月就下降了一半，并且再也没有恢复。
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“It’s really frustrating,” he says. Rivet & Hide has pushed up prices for EU customers to include new tariffs, VAT and shipping costs.

“这真是令人沮丧，”他说。Rivet & Hide已经提高了欧盟客户的价格，包括新的关税、增值税和运输成本。

“I hear Johnson boasting about free trade and all the rest of it. I don’t know how he’s got the brass neck to talk about us doing free trade when basically he’s the one who’s imposed sanctions on our business. “We were freely trading with the EU and now we’ve had tariffs imposed on us through our Brexit deals.”

“我听到约翰逊吹嘘自由贸易和其他所有的事情。我不知道他怎么能厚颜无耻地谈论我们进行自由贸易，而实际上是他对我们的生意施加了制裁。我们曾与欧盟自由贸易，现在却因为脱欧协议而被征收关税。”
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With Britain’s economy facing the risk of recession amid the cost of living crisis, Hodgson says the government has caused harm to the British economy that could have easily been avoided.

霍奇森说，由于生活成本危机，英国经济面临衰退的风险，政府对英国经济造成的这些伤害本可以轻易避免。

“We’re less profitable, there’s a lot more work involved, there’s a lot more hassle, but I’m still slogging away at it in the hope one day things improve,” he says. “But if there was a trade war, it would finish that off.”

他表示：“我们的盈利能力下降了，涉及的工作更多了，麻烦也更多了，但我仍在努力，希望有一天情况会有所改善。但如果发生贸易战，一切都完蛋了。”