‘Apocalyptic’ food prices will be disastrous for world’s poor, says Bank governor
-Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey blames UK’s highest inflation rate for three decades on Russia-Ukraine war and Covid

银行行长说,“世界末日”级食品价格对世界贫困人口将是灾难性的
——英格兰银行的安德鲁·贝利将英国30年来最高的通胀率归咎于俄乌战争和疫情


(Local government officials and Ukrainian soldiers inspect a grain warehouse shelled by Russian forces in Novovorontsovka this month.)

(当地政府官员和乌克兰士兵检查本月俄罗斯军队在新沃龙佐夫卡炮击的一个粮仓。)
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The Bank of England governor has blamed the war in Ukraine for the highest inflation in the UK for three decades and warned that “apocalyptic” food prices caused by Russia’s invasion could have a disastrous impact on the world’s poor.

这位英国央行行长将英国30年来最高的通胀归咎于乌克兰战争,并警告称,俄罗斯入侵造成的“灾难性”食品价格,可能对全球穷人产生灾难性影响。

Defending Threadneedle Street before an announcement on Wednesday of the sharpest annual increase in four decades, Andrew Bailey told MPs that while he was unhappy about the level of price rises, 80% of the inflation target overshoot was caused by factors outside the Bank’s control.

在周三宣布四十年来最急剧的年度涨价之前,安德鲁·贝利为针线街辩护,他告诉议员们,尽管他对价格上涨的水平感到不满,但80%的通胀目标超出是由银行无法控制的因素造成的。

Bailey said the Bank could not have been expected to predict a war in Ukraine, which he warned would have consequences for the UK and the developing world.

贝利表示,人们不可能指望世行预测出乌克兰的战争,他警告称,乌克兰战争将对英国和发展中国家产生影响。

Countries such as Egypt and Tunisia rely heavily on exports of Ukraine’s wheat and cooking oil, and the governor said his concerns about food supplies had been heightened after speaking to Kyiv’s finance minister at last month’s IMF meeting in Washington.

埃及和突尼斯等国严重依赖乌克兰的小麦和食用油出口。乌克兰央行行长表示,上月在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织会议上与基辅财政部长交谈后,他对粮食供应的担忧加剧了。

“He said he was optimistic about crop planting, but at the moment there was no way of shipping the food out, and it’s getting worse,” Bailey said. “That’s not just a major worry for this country, but a worry for the developing world. I’m sorry for being apocalyptic, but it is a worry.”

贝利说:“他说他对农作物耕种很乐观,但目前没有办法把食物运出去,情况越来越糟。这不仅是这个国家的主要担忧,也是发展中国家的担忧。我很抱歉我提到了世界末日,但这确实令人担忧。”

Amid growing concern about Britain’s cost-of-living crisis, the head of the CBI, Tony Danker, called on the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to offer immediate help to those struggling to feed themselves at a time of rising food and energy prices. The director-general of the employers’ organisation said there was a “moral imperative” on the government to act.

在人们对英国生活成本危机日益担忧之际,英国工业联合会主席托尼·丹克呼吁财政大臣里希·苏纳克立即向那些在食品和能源价格上涨之际难以养活自己的人提供帮助。该雇主组织的总干事表示,政府采取行动是“道义上的责任”。

Official figures due out on Wednesday are expected to show the annual inflation rate climbing above 9%, with the Bank of England expecting the figure to climb above 10% when the energy price cap is raised further in October.

定于周三发布的官方数据预计将显示,年通胀率将攀升至9%以上。英格兰银行预计,当10月份能源价格上限进一步上调时,通胀率将攀升至10%以上。

Asked if the Bank could have prevented inflation from soaring by raising interest rates sooner, Bailey told the Treasury sext committee: “I don’t think we could. I don’t think we could foresee a war in Ukraine.

当被问及银行是否本可以通过提前提高利率来阻止通货膨胀时,贝利告诉财政部特别委员会:“我认为我们做不到。我认为我们无法预见乌克兰会发生战争。

“Another factor that we’re dealing with at the moment is a further leg of Covid, which is affecting China. We have seen a series of supply shocks coming one after another, and that’s unprecedented.”

“我们目前正在应对的另一个因素是新冠肺炎的进一步蔓延,它正在影响中国。我们已经看到一系列供应冲击接踵而至,这是前所未有的。”

The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee has raised interest rates at its last four meetings after it doubled its forecast for the peak in inflation this year from 5% to 10%.

英国央行货币政策委员会的九名成员已经在过去的四次会议上提高了利率,此前他们将今年的通胀峰值预期从5%提高到了10%。

“I don’t feel at all happy and it’s a bad situation to be in,” the governor said after MPs asked him to explain why the Bank had waited until December before acting.

“我一点也不高兴,现在的情况很糟糕,”这位行长表示。此前,议员们要求他解释为何英国央行一直等到12月才采取行动。

In the wake of reports at the weekend that unnamed cabinet ministers had questioned whether the Bank should remain independent, Bailey said: “This is the biggest test of the monetary policy frxwork in 25 years. There is no question about that.”

上周末有报道称,不愿透露姓名的内阁大臣们质疑英国央行是否应该保持独立性。随后,贝利表示:“这是25年来对货币政策框架的最大考验。这是毫无疑问的。”

The governor reiterated the call for pay restraint that he made in February, urging the best-paid to set an example to workers earning less.

这位行长重申了他在2月份提出的限制工资上涨的呼吁,敦促收入最高的工人为收入较低的工人树立榜样。

“I do think people, particularly people who are on higher earnings, should think and reflect on asking for high wage increases,” he said. “It’s a societal question. But I am not preaching about this. It’s not for me to go around telling people what to do.

他说:“我确实认为人们,特别是那些收入较高的人,应该对提高工资的诉求进行思考和反思。这是一个社会问题。但我不是在宣扬这个。我没资格到处告诉别人该怎么做。

“In that sense, I know I may have been interpreted as doing that, but I wasn’t. What I was saying is that maybe people should reflect on it, particularly people in that situation.”

“从这个意义上说,我知道我可能会被理解为这样做,但我没有。我想说的是,也许人们应该反思一下,尤其是处于那种情况下的人。”

Paul Nowak, deputy general secretary of the Trades unx Congress, said: “It is unbelievable that the Bank of England has repeated its calls for workers to take a wage hit – while saying virtually nothing about soaring profits at the likes of BP and Shell. The last thing working people need right now – in the middle of the worst living standards crisis in generations – is to have their wages held down.”

英国工会大会副秘书长保罗·诺瓦克表示:“令人难以置信的是,英国央行一再呼吁工人削减工资,却几乎没有提到英国石油和壳牌等公司利润飙升的问题。在几代人以来最糟糕的生活水平危机中,员工们现在最不需要的就是工资被压低。”

Asked about the future dangers to the cost of living, Bailey said there could be prolonged supply-chain bottlenecks as a result of disruption in China or higher energy prices if Russia decided to cut off gas supplies.

在被问及未来生活成本面临的危险时,贝利表示,中国的供应中断可能会导致供应链瓶颈延长,如果俄罗斯决定切断天然气供应,能源价格可能会上涨。
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However, he said the Bank could not have been expected to foresee recent events. “I do see comments based on hindsight, but we have to take [monetary policy] decisions based on the facts and evidence at the time.”

不过,他表示,不可能指望英国央行预测近期的事件。“我确实看到了基于事后诸葛亮的评论,但我们必须根据当时的事实和证据做出(货币政策)决定。”

His comments followed an announcement by Great Britain’s energy regulator, Ofgem, that it was planning to make changes to its price cap four times a year, as opposed to twice at present.

在此之前,英国能源监管机构天然气与电力市场办公室宣布,计划每年对价格上限进行四次调整,而不是目前的两次。

The regulator on Monday published a consultation on proposals to introduce new reviews of the price cap in January and July, adding to existing changes in April and October, in an attempt to respond more quickly to volatile markets.

监管机构周一发布了一份征求意见稿,建议在今年1月和7月对限价上限进行新的审查,此前已在4月和10月对限价上限进行了修改,以更快地应对市场波动。

Meanwhile, the RAC revealed that the average price of diesel at forecourts had hit a record of just over £1.80 a litre, with experts warning of further rises if EU plans to ban Russian oil imports go ahead.

与此同时,英国皇家汽车俱乐部透露,前院柴油的平均价格达到了每升略高于1.8英镑的创纪录水平,专家警告称,如果欧盟禁止进口俄罗斯石油的计划继续实施,柴油价格还将进一步上涨。