网友讨论：中国克服半导体劣势/美国克服稀土劣势，这两种哪种更有可能成功？

Safiu
both are likely to succeed.
overcoming the rare earth disadvantage is but a hype created by the USA - The chinese have not stopped selling rare earth elements. but the USA wants to create an independent source - its ok.
the semi conductor thing is a suppression of a nations aspirations by the USA - it is the USA that is putting restrictions on China - which is bound to fail - no human aspiration can be suppressed.

两者都有可能成功。
克服稀土问题不过是美国的炒作——因为中国人并没有停止销售稀土，只是美国想要建立一个独立的来源——这没问题。
半导体是美国对一个国家抱负的压制——是美国对中国施加的限制——这注定要失败——任何人类的抱负都是无法压制的。

Pabitra Saha
Finding rare earth is only question of funding and the same would become available as the prices rise. There are huge areas of land where such exploration is possible.
creating semiconductor technology is more dependent on creativity which only open societies can generate. Despite funding, hard work and fiscal incentives, neither Japan, Russia or Western Europe ( mainly Germany) could create a design and production capacity.

寻找稀土只是资金问题，随着稀土价格的上涨，这个问题可以得到解决，因为有大片的土地可以进行这样的勘探。
而创造半导体技术更依赖于只有开放社会才会产生的创造力。尽管有资金、勤劳的工人和财政激励，但无论是日本、俄罗斯还是西欧（主要是德国），都无法建立相应的设计和生产能力。

Anonymous
Rare Earth scenario is more likely to succeed because these minerals aren’t rare per se… it’s just the refining capabilities are limited because it’s an extremely toxic industry.
There’s also research in materials such as graphene which hopefully can make up in certain applications in place of rare earths too.
I’m not saying China’s semiconductor drive won’t succeed, it’s just compared between the two situations, the rare earths situation doesn’t have as many caveats as semiconductors issues.

稀土这个脚本更可能成功，因为这些矿物本身并不稀有……只是在精炼能力上被限制了，因为这是一个剧毒行业。
还有一些对材料的研究，如石墨烯，有望在某些应用中取代稀土。
我不是说中国的半导体发展不会成功，只是比较这两种情况之后，稀土所面临的问题没有半导体那么多。

However, with all of that said, the US can still mess up big time with mitigating rare earths supply issues because of bad leadership and other factors, hence, it can in theory be delayed long enough that China figures out a way to mitigate their semiconductor issues.
So, just think about all of this from that perspective.

然而，尽管如此，由于领导不力和其他因素，美国在缓解稀土供应问题上仍有可能会面临大麻烦。因此，从理论上讲，这可能会拖延足够长的时间，在此期间中国可能会找到缓解其半导体难题的方法。
所以，你们可以从这个角度考虑一下所有这些问题。

Jason Wills-Starin
, Autist, software enthusiast, dreamer, entrepreneur，Lives in Charlotte, NC
US rare earth production is roughly 4 years away. Chinese Semiconductor production is roughly 8 years away.
Both are likely to succeed, the US is just reopening closed mines and processing facilities while China is developing skills and equipment from espionage.
It doesn't mean parity. US rare earth minerals will cost more because the US is unlikely to just dump the waste water on farmers, and has significantly more fresh water available. Meanwhile, the US superconductor and semiconductor sector is likely to quadruple in size over the same 8 years.

美国要生产稀土大约需要4年时间，中国要解决半导体难题大约需要8年时间。
两者都有可能取得成功，美国刚刚重新开放了关闭的稀土矿山和加工设施，而中国正在通过oo活动开发半导体技术和设备。
但这并不意味着两者的发展是对等的。虽然美国开采稀土的成本将更高，因为美国不太可能忽视环境问题。但与此同时，美国的超导体和半导体行业的规模可能在同样的8年内翻两番。

Kiok Khng Png
Rare earth is not exactly rare. China is a major supplier because it has rare earth refining technology and has a higher tolerance for environmental pollution associated with rare earth refining. Chinese government also build the transportation infrastructure to get the refined rare earth from its remote region to the coastal export hub. This is different from many countries where the mining companies need to invest in the transportation infrastructure also, thus raising the cost of production. For US to overcome the rare earth disadvantage, the major obstacles is not in the technology, which is US already has, but in the mindset change towards grooming the rare earth industry. President Biden’s proposed trillion dollar plan if it works might help although it might mean US consumers of electronic products will have to bear higher costs.

稀土并不十分稀有。中国是一个主要供应商，那是因为它拥有稀土精炼技术，并且对与稀土精炼相关的环境污染具有较高的耐受性。中国ZF还建设了运输稀土的基础设施，可以将精炼稀土从偏远地区运往沿海的出口枢纽。这与许多国家不同，在这些国家，矿业公司需要投资交通基础设施，从而会提高生产成本。对于美国来说，克服稀土供给方面的劣势的主要障碍不在于技术，因为美国拥有这些技术，而在于在稀土产业上转变心态。拜登总统提出的万亿美元基础设施建设计划如果奏效可能会对此有所帮助，尽管这可能意味着美国的电子产品消费者将不得不承担更高的成本。

Semiconductor technology on the other hand is more complex and thus pose a major challenge for China to get around US initiated technology war. Current high-end silicon-based semiconductor requires technology that China does not possessed. Example would be EUV technology from ASML and adhesives from Japanese companies. But China is doing a dual track approach to overcome such obstacles. It is investing in silicone-based conductor manufacturing and graphene based next generation semiconductor. This will take a lot of effort but since the Chinese government does not face election pressure and thus is able to do the necessary long term reforms and strategic plan execution to achieve the obxtion. As such, I wouldn’t bet on China failing.

另一方面，半导体技术更为复杂，因此这对中国绕过美国发起的技术战构成了重大挑战。目前，生产高端硅基半导体需要中国不具备的技术。例如，ASML的EUV光刻机技术和日本公司的粘合剂。但中国正在采取双轨并进的办法克服这些障碍，它正在投资硅基-半导体制造和石墨烯基-下一代半导体技术。这需要很多努力，但因为中国ZF没有选举压力，因此他们能够进行必要的长期改革和执行战略计划以实现目标。因此，我不会打赌中国会失败。

Nathan Crank
China’s efforts to overcome semiconductor disadvantage. China has solved the problems in 10nm processes and is working towards smaller transistor sizes. The attempt to cut China off from photolithography equipment has lead to the Chinese investing in a Manhattan Project level effort to develop their own.
Parity with TSMC and Samsung is only a matter of time now. Also, neither of those are US companies, China’s main competition in semiconductors is not with the US.
Meanwhile the US can’t even refine its own rare earths, the ore is still sent to China for refining.

中国克服半导体劣势的努力。
中国已经解决了10nm工艺的问题，并正在努力缩小晶体管尺寸。试图切断中国与光刻设备的联系，会导致中国在曼哈顿工程的层面上投资开发自己的设备。
他们追上台积电和三星只是时间问题。此外，这两家公司都不是美国公司，中国在半导体领域的主要竞争对手不是美国。
与此同时，美国甚至无法提炼自己的稀土，他们的矿石仍然被送往中国进行提炼。

Robert Quek
, former Retired. Prior Employment in Finance Sector，Lived in Lived in Singapore
Both will succeed.
Rare earth is not rare at all. It is that the processing to extract the minerals is very pollutive. America has been happy to buy the refined minerals and let China bears the pollution. The processing technology is not rocket science. So the issue for the US is whether it is willing to bear the pollution.
It prefers to avoid it and tries to diversify its sources by encouraging other countries to do it. One example is Australia which also wants to pass the buck of pollution. An Australian company set up a processing plant in Malaysia, which soon realizes the pollution problem. The company has been given a specified date to terminate operation having failed to satisfy the authorities of any solution.

两者都能成功。
稀土一点也不稀有。只是因为提取矿物的过程非常污染环境，所以美国才一直乐于购买精炼稀土，让中国承担污染的后果。处理稀土的技术也并不是什么尖端科技，因此，美国的问题在于它是否愿意承担污染。
但它更愿意避免这种做法，并试图通过鼓励其他国家这样做，以使其稀土来源多样化。澳大利亚就是一个例子，它也不想承担污染的后果。一家澳大利亚公司在马来西亚建立了一家稀土加工厂，但它很快就意识到了污染问题。由于其没有能使当局满意的任何解决方案，该公司已被指定了终止经营的日期。

China’s response to the embargo of semiconductors by the US is to raise its own output. The strategy in place is not just the chips, but to build the entire supply chain. Government encouragement is palpable, in the forms of joint research, funding, contracts, co-investments, and so on. Almost overnight, thousands of new private companies have emerged across the spectrum of the technology.
US embargoes cover chips, and US technology and equipment, which are extended extraterritorially to companies owned by other countries. The most serious effects are the high-end chips, like 5nm chips in smartphones. Huawei’s handphone business took a dive. It is trying to regain market share in China following the launch of its proprietary HarmonyOS in June. On extraterritoriality, ASML could not ship the order of lithography machine it sold to SMIC.

中国对美国半导体禁运的反应是提高自己的产量。中国实施的战略不仅仅在于芯片，而是意图构建整个供应链。来自政府的鼓励是显而易见的，其形式包括联合研究、资助、订立合同、共同投资等，几乎在一夜之间就有数千家新的私营公司在技术领域涌现。
美国的禁运包括芯片、美国的技术和设备，以及其他国家拥有的使用这些技术和设备的公司。影响最严重的是高端芯片，比如智能手机中的5nm芯片。华为的手机业务因此而一落千丈，在6月份推出其专有的HarmonyOS之后，该公司正试图重新在中国获得市场份额。由于美国的长臂管辖，ASML无法将其出售给中芯国际的光刻机订单发货。

But China already has capacities of lower-end chips, such as 14nm and 24nm chips, which are the most used chips by other industries, notably the automobile industry. Just SMIC. It has almost $20 billion worth of joint investments with government entities in 4 plants in Shanghai (2), Shenzhen, and Beijing, in 14nm and 24nm chips. According to a report, the 14nm plant is able to go to 7nm using an alternative technology than lithography.
Many foreign companies in China are reported to take steps to strip themselves from US technology and equipment. China is a big and rich market. No one wants to lose it.
Stay tune on both rare earth and semiconductors. Trades continue on rare earth. No effect on the Chinese rare earth companies. US semiconductors suppliers are not amused and have lodged many requests for waivers. It is painful to lose the market in China.

但中国已经具备了生产低端芯片，如14nm和24nm芯片的能力，这些芯片是其他行业（尤其是汽车行业）使用得最多的芯片。仅仅中芯国际就与政府实体联合投资了近200亿美元新建了4家工厂（上海（2）、深圳和北京）来生产14纳米和24纳米芯片。根据一份报告称，其14nm的工厂能够使用一种光刻替代技术生产7nm芯片。
据报道，许多在华外国公司已采取措施在技术和设备方面“去美国化”。中国是一个巨大且富有的市场，没有人想失去它。
继续来说稀土和半导体。稀土贸易仍在继续，对中国的稀土企业没有影响。而美国的半导体供应商对美国的禁令不感兴趣，它们提出了许多豁免申请，因为失去中国市场是痛苦的。

Bill Sze
“According to a report, the 14nm plant is able to go to 7nm using an alternative technology than lithography.” It was a news release from China, not independently verified and there was no announcement of machine based on such technology is being planned. If this alternative is readily available, SMIC would be building 7nm fab right now.
“Many foreign companies in China are reported to take steps to strip themselves from US technology and equipment. China is a big and rich market. No one wants to lose it.” Not with EUV lithography. The core technology is from US and ASML cannot strip it from EUV machine. ASML has a total monopoly on EUV, so unless the alternative technology which had been talked about for a decade now change the landscape, China is in a tough situation.

“根据一份报告称，其14nm的工厂能够使用一种光刻替代技术生产7nm芯片。”，这是一份来自中国的新闻稿，未经独立验证，也没有基于这种技术的设备正在计划中。如果这一替代方案随时可用，中芯国际将立即建设7nm晶圆厂。
“据报道，许多在华外国公司已采取措施在技术和设备方面“去美国化。中国是一个巨大且富有的市场，没有人想失去它”。这不适用于核心技术来自美国的EUV 光刻机，因为ASML无法将美国技术从EUV光刻机中剥离。ASML完全垄断了EUV光刻机，因此，除非已经谈论了十年的替代技术现在出现并改变局面，否则中国的处境仍将十分艰难。

Robert Quek
My sense of the report of SMIC is that I believe it. I agree it is not easy to go 7nm, but that does not mean it should build an exclusive 7nm fab right now. It has its own strategy and having 4 fabs under construction take a lot of skilled manpower and talents. I think China wants to make sure that it can supply itself with the chips most in general use by its industries.
ASML is Dutch not American. I read that its chairman fretted at the US embargo because it will lose sales worth several billions and may well also create a competitor in China. In other words, he is respectful of China’s ability.
Surely it is in a tough situation. It had been in tougher situation prior.

我相信中芯国际的报告。我同意达到7nm并不容易，但这并不意味着它现在就应该建立一个单独的7nm工厂。它有自己的战略，它目前在建的4个工厂需要大量熟练的人力和人才。我认为，中国希望确保能够优先为其产业提供最普遍使用的芯片。
ASML是荷兰而不是美国的公司。我了解到，该公司董事长对美国的禁运感到不安，因为这将意味着它将失去价值数十亿美元的销售额，很可能还会在中国制造一个竞争对手。换句话说，他尊重中国的能力。
当然，这是一个艰难的局面，但中国在它之前的处境更为糟糕。

Bill Sze
My understanding of 7nm fabrication is it requires EUV lithography. China’s semiconductor fabrication bottleneck is more than just lack of EUV lithography. There is also know how. Samsung and Intel can get all the technologies they want, yet they cannot make chips as advance as TSMC. Can China have a break through and resolve its dependency of foreign semiconductors? Compare to US’s dependency of rare earth materials from China, it is a much harder proposition.

我对7nm芯片的理解是它需要EUV光刻技术。中国的半导体制造瓶颈不仅仅在于缺少EUV光刻技术，它还缺一些技巧。三星和英特尔可以获得他们想要的所有技术，但它们还是无法像台积电那样制造先进的芯片。与美国对中国稀土材料的依赖相比，中国突破并解决对外国半导体的依赖是一个更加困难的任务。

Robert Quek
I have no technical knowledge. Here is something posted by Felix Su in Sept 2020. SMIC can print 7nm without EUV stepper using multi-patterning process invented by TSMC. Takes longer because you have to run the wafer through the machine multiple times. China is trying to catch up with US in stepper technology. Announced breakthrough in using laser in a stepper to print designs, can do 5nm. Germany also makes steppers, does not use US technology, eager to jump into China’s market.

我没有技术方面的背景。以下是Quora网友Felix Su在2020年9月发布的内容。
中芯国际可以使用台积电发明的多图案工艺，在不使用EUV光刻机的情况下印刷7nm晶圆。这需要更长的时间，因为您必须让晶圆多次通过机器。中国正试图在步进式光刻机技术方面赶上美国，他们已经宣布他们在步进式光刻机内使用激光进行印刷设计方面取得了突破，可以做到5nm。德国也生产不使用美国技术的步进式光刻机，而且他们急于进入中国市场。