网友讨论：哪个发展中国家可以成为下一个发达国家？
What developing country will become the next developed nation?
译文简介
网友：第一批可以成为发达国家的（未来五年）：波兰，匈牙利，克罗地亚，哈萨克斯坦，马来西亚和智利。第二批（未来十年）：乌拉圭、巴拿马、罗马尼亚、产油国(沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋和文莱)，土耳其，俄罗斯，和伊朗（如果伊朗经济可以恢复增长的话）......
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网友讨论：哪个发展中国家可以成为下一个发达国家？
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1st group (next 5 years) - Poland, Hungary, Croatia, Khazakhstan, Malaysia and Chile.
2nd group (next 10 years) - Uruguay, Panama, Romania, Petrostates (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrein, Qatar, UAE and Brunei), Turkey, Russia, and Iran (if its economy return to growth).
第一批可以成为发达国家的（未来五年）：波兰，匈牙利，克罗地亚，哈萨克斯坦，马来西亚和智利
第二批（未来十年）：乌拉圭、巴拿马、罗马尼亚、产油国(沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋和文莱)，土耳其，俄罗斯，和伊朗（如果伊朗经济可以恢复增长的话）。
第三批（未来十五年）：哥斯达黎加、多米尼加共和国、特立尼达和多巴哥、巴西，阿根廷，墨西哥（如果他们的增长速度可以超过预期的话），泰国，中国，阿塞拜疆，白俄罗斯，塞尔维亚
50 years from now, we shouldn't be surprised if these countries have reached our current idea of developed.
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA: Malaysia, Thailand, China
Indonesia*, Vietnam* and Philippines*
五十年后，如果下面这些国家可以达到我们目前所认为的发达水平，那么我们也不应该感到惊讶
东亚和东南亚国家：中国，马来西亚，泰国，印度尼西亚，越南和菲律宾
Lebanon*, Turkey*, & Iran*
EASTERN EUROPE: Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia,
Ukraine* and Belarus*
西亚：阿联酋、巴林、阿曼、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、哈萨克斯坦、黎巴嫩、土耳其、和伊朗
东欧：保加利亚，罗马尼亚，俄罗斯，塞尔维亚，阿尔巴尼亚，马其顿，波斯尼亚，乌克兰和白俄罗斯
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Mexico*, Argentina*, and Brazil*
AFRICA: Tunisia, Morocco, Botswana, Namibia, Mauritius, Gabon
South Africa*, Algeria*
拉丁美洲:乌拉圭、智利、哥斯达黎加、巴拿马、哥伦比亚、秘鲁，多米尼加，特立尼达，墨西哥，阿根廷，巴西
非洲：突尼斯，摩洛哥，博茨瓦纳，纳米比亚，毛里求斯，加蓬，南非，阿尔及利亚
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
我认为智利可以成为发达国家
根据最新的人类发展指数，智利排名第35，高过欧盟的一些发达国家，如葡萄牙和斯洛伐克
They are also relatively clean from corruption. In the latest Corruption Perception Index, they are ranked 26th, significantly better than some established European countries such as Spain and Italy.
在人均GDP上，智利表现得也相当不错，他们得人均GDP与一些欧盟国家相当，如克罗地亚
而且智利相对来说比较廉洁。最新的清廉印象指数中，智利排名第26，排名远远好于一些老牌的欧洲国家，如西班牙和意大利
智利有相对良好的教育和医疗水平，中等较高的人均收入，和良好的治理能力，这些让智利离成为发达国家只有一步之遥
Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index is the key. HDI just measures how rich a country is. Not whether many people are actually able to benefit from it.
不平等调整后人类发展指数才是关键。人类发展指数只能衡量一个国家的富裕程度，无法真正衡量是否有很多人真的从中获益。
There is still poverty (20%+) and huge shantytowns. Very high inequality and low class mobility. Chile will not be a developed country until these problems are solved.
智利贫困率很高（20%以上），而且有规模庞大的棚户区。智利不平等情况非常的严重，阶级流动性很低。这些问题不解决的话，智利就无法成为发达国家。
The IMF describes countries with a GNI per capita of more than $15000 as advanced economies.
Countries that have an GNI of almost $15000 are:
Chile: $13530
Argentina: $11960
Uruguay: $15230 (but somehow not categorized as advanced economy)
Panama: $12140
Costa Rica: $10840
国际货币基金组织将人均国民收入超过15000美元的国家定义为发达经济体。
人均国民收入接近15000美元的国家：
智利13530美元，阿根廷11960美元，乌拉圭15230美元(但不知为何没有被归为发达经济体)，巴拿马12140美元，哥斯达黎加10840美元
In a couple of years also countries like Malaysia, Romania and Mauritius will follow, and later on Brazil and China.
Also some gulf nations like the UAE and Qatar have a very high GNI per capita, but are still not categorized as advanced economies
波兰12680美元，匈牙利12570美元，
几年后。马来西亚，罗马尼亚和毛里求斯的人均国民收入也会达到这个水平，之后是巴西和中国
此外，一些海湾国家，如阿联酋和卡塔尔，虽然人均国民收入很高，但依然没有被列为发达经济体
'Second' World countries such as Hungary, Slovakia Poland and Romania have the best chance to become developed countries in the future. They are already part of the EU and cheaper alternative for European companies setting up factories without having to invest in a less familiar setting such as Indonesia and Thailand.
These countries already have good infrastructure and already in the European unx. If these countries have the same GDP per capita with more developed countries such as France and Germany. I think that they are a developed country by default.
匈牙利、斯洛伐克、波兰和罗马尼亚等 "第二世界 "国家在未来最有可能成为发达国家。他们已经是欧盟的一部分，对于要设立工厂的欧洲企业来说，他们不必一定要到不那么熟悉的印度尼西亚和泰国投资，匈牙利这些国家都是成本较低的可替代性选择。
这些国家的已经拥有了良好的基础设施，并且还是欧盟的一部分。如果这些国家的人均GDP水平达到了法国和德国的水平，那么我认为他们就会被默认为发达国家。
I read many answers of this question ，you netizens listed many countries here which you think will become developed countries in the future，but there is no China. Don’t you guys think that the world’s second largest economic entity will become developed？ or you think China has been a developed country？
看了这个问题的很多答案，在这里你们这些网民列举了你们认为的很多未来可以成为发达国家的国家，但是却没有中国。难道你们不认为世界第二大经济体未来不会成为发达国家吗？或者说你们认为中国已经是发达国家了？
China is a developing country forever.China should become a leader of developing countries, not a developed country.
中国永远都是发展中国家。中国应该成为发展中国家的领袖，而不是成为发达国家
In the next decades it will be China. With the most potential. And I think China will be the last country in this world to be included inside Developed nation bracket. Strongly developed and not weakly developed.
Country like India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia(my country), Indonesia, Philippine, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico can just dream.
未来几十年可以成为发达国家的是中国。中国是最有潜力的国家。而且我认为中国是世界上最后一个进入发达经济体行列的国家。而且中国会成为高度发达国家，而不是弱发达国家。
像印度，斯里兰卡，马来西亚（我的祖国），印度尼西亚，菲律宾，巴西，阿根廷，墨西哥这样的国家可以洗洗睡了
Argentina, Mexico and Malaysia SHOULD become “developed” The rest NO.
阿根廷，墨西哥和马来西亚应该可以成为发达国家。其他的不太可能
The last line is just pure BS. Indonesia and Sri Lanka will develop in a decade or two. Malaysia/India will take some more time but they too will develop in 3–4 decades, Malaysia will probably outpace India in this process.
最后一段话就是在胡扯。未来十到二十年，印度尼西亚和斯里兰卡将会成为发达国家。马来西亚和印度需要更多的时间，但未来三四十年它们会发展起来的，在这个过程中，马来西亚可能会超过印度。
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Actually Argentina, Mexico, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have a standard of living similar to China and economies that are diversifying more and more everyday.
实际上阿根廷，墨西哥，马来西亚和斯里兰卡的生活水平和中国差不多，而且它们经济多样化的水平在日益提升
The diversity of economics of these countries is nowhere comparable with China’s.
这些国家经济多样性的水平和中国根本就没得比
Argentina has a chance
阿根廷有机会成为发达国家
Many countries around the globe are close to becoming developed countries but as a result of the Coronavirus outbreak, their efforts have been hampered quite a lot…
世界上很多国家都已经接近成为发达国家了，但由于新冠疫情的爆发，它们的努力受到了严重的阻碍
The economy has suffered a lot as a result of corruption and bad policies in the last years but Turkey is, at least in some of its regions, Western and Central, could be considered developed soon.
The country is open to trade and is a democracy.
All and all, close to being one if it was not for the latest economic catastrophes.
土耳其
由于腐败和最近几年糟糕的政策，土耳其的经济遇到了很大的麻烦，但至少土耳其的部分地区，如西部和中部，很快就可以达到发达国家的水平
土耳其对贸易开放，而且是民主国家，总而言之，如果最近几年没有发生经济灾难的话，那么土耳其离发达国家已经不远了
Ever since opening up to the International World and Market, they have been steadily developing after being shut off for decades.
It is as most developing countries plagued by corruption and other mismanagement issues but the countries potential is huge as it has the world's greatest energy reserves.
俄罗斯曾被封锁数十年，在对国际市场开放之后，俄罗斯经济一直稳步发展
与大多数发展中国家一样，俄罗斯深受腐败和其他管理不善等问题的困扰，但这个国家拥有巨大的潜力，因为俄罗斯拥有世界上最庞大的能源储备
China is the world’s second largest economy, but that does not mean that it is a developed country as the GDP per capita is very low compared to the USA.
China has a huge population, the world’s largest, and is open to the World Market.
They have the world’s largest manufacturing industry and it is where almost all of our goods are made. The country has colossal potential and is a great rival to the USA.
中国
中国是世界第二大经济体，但这并不意味着中国就是发达国家，因为与美国相比，中国的人均GDP很低
中国拥有世界上最多的人口，对世界市场开放。中国拥有世界上最庞大的制造业，几乎我们所有的产品都是中国制造的。这个国家拥有巨大的潜力，是美国的一大对手。
India is a developing country, which is said to pass China’s population in the coming decades.
The country has vast resources and is rivalling China in manufacturing.
As with most developing countries it has huge potential and is steadily improving however the Cast System is causing it some issues in development and the development is not spread around the country equally.
印度
印度是一个发展中国家，据说未来几十年印度的人口将会超过中国
印度拥有丰富的资源，在制造业上可以和中国相互竞争
和大部分发展中国家一样，印度拥有庞大的潜力，而且印度正在逐步提高自己的实力，然而，印度的种姓制度给发展都来了很多的问题，而且印度的发展在全国范围内并不平衡。
I don’t think India will ever become developed.
1.35 billion people and it keeps rising. Even the EU which has done everything right for 70+ years has less than 450 million people. India reaching the level of EU countries with its ever-growing population “soon” sounds extremely unlikely.
我认为印度不会成为发达国家
印度有13.5亿人口，而且还在不断的增加。即便是70年来一向表现不错的欧盟的人口也只有4.5亿不到。随着人口不断的增长，印度要想达到欧盟国家的水平的可能性似乎非常的低
I'll agree with China, somewhat agree with Turkey (not fully agree especially because its rising Islamism), but I doubt Russia because its major economic activity relies on raw materials, and India because its huge gap between the rich and the poor, illiteracy percentage, minority oppression, and caste system.
我同意中国会成为发达国家，部分同意土耳其可以成为发达国家（不是完全同意，尤其是因为土耳其正在兴起伊斯兰主义），但我认为俄罗斯和印度无法成为发达国家，因为俄罗斯主要的经济活动依赖于原材料，而印度是因为贫富差距太大，文盲率非常高，压迫少数民族，存在种姓制度。
I am Indian. Caste system is there, but it is not hampering gdp.
我是印度人，印度的确有种姓制度，但这并不会影响到GDP的发展。
First is China.
Second (my guess) Chile. Their geography of (1) being a coastal country, (2) having a large desert region, and (3) the world’s demand for lithium over the next 20 years will propel them.
我觉得第一个应该是中国
第二个应该是智利。在地理上，智利属于沿海国家，拥有很大的沙漠地区，未来二十年世界对锂电池的需求会推动智利的发展
As of now, China is the only certain answer to this question.
There are a few other candidates: Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and a few other Latin American countries, but their economies are not as innovative as China’s, so they may well fall into the Middle income trap.
目前，中国是唯一可以确定能够成为发达国家的经济体
还有其他的一些候选国家：马来西亚，哈萨克斯坦，土耳其，和少数几个拉美国家，但这些国家的经济不像中国那样具有创新性，所以它们可能会掉入中等收入陷阱。
Going off the HDI, most formerly-communist countries that joined the EU are developed or close to being developed. In the 1990s they were very poor.
These include Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary.
Ireland is pretty much considered a developed country by everyone now, but as late as the 1990s it was a lot poorer than most mainland Western European countries.
从人类发展指数来看，大部分加入欧盟的前共产主义国家都是发达国家或接近于发达国家。上世纪90年代，他们都还非常的贫穷。
这些国家包括波兰，捷克，斯洛伐克，匈牙利
现在所有人都视爱尔兰为发达国家，但直到上世纪90年代，爱尔兰比大部分西欧国家都要穷的多。
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Aside from that, Chile and Argentina are close to being developed, or are developed by some measurements.
Venezuela was close to being developed for a few years after 2010, but since then, it has collapsed and is now poorer than Colombia.
泰国和马来西亚同样被视为接近发达国家水平
除此以外，智利和阿根廷也接近发达国家水平，或者按照某些指标来看，他们已经是发达国家了。
2010年之后的几年时间里，委内瑞拉距离发达国家水平已经很接近了，但从那以后，这个国家就崩溃了，现在比哥伦比亚还要穷。
Not sure about Thailand.
Although Bangkok is quite developed, it is messy, and there are no settlements outside of Bangkok with more than 1M people, showing the relative lack of urbanisation.
Malaysia is much closer to being developed- better governance (especially after the recent change in government), English-speaking, lots of natural resources, a skilled workforce. With less than half (32M) of Thailand's population, it has at least 10 cities larger than 1M, indicating much higher urbanisation.
我认为泰国不一定能成为发达国家。虽然曼谷相当的发达，但非常的混乱，除曼谷以外，泰国没有一个超过百万人口的定居点，这表明泰国城市化水平相对较低。
马来西亚要更加接近发达国家的水平，马拉西亚的治理水平更好（尤其是在最近更换政府之后），马来西亚人说英语，有丰富的自然资源，有熟练的劳动力。马来西亚人口3200万，不到泰国的一半，但马来西亚人口超过百万的城市有十几座，这表明马来西亚城市化的水平要比泰国高很多。
China will be one of the next Developed Countries since it has a very strong economy and a sharp drop in poverty.
中国会成为下一个发达国家，因为中国经济强劲，而且贫困率急速降低
Tanzania is going to be one of the fastest developing nation soon.
It already has the unique advantage of being the only sizeable country in Africa which has not suffered any political upheavals since independence. All transfer of power has been after free and fair elections.
Keeping the stable political climate in mind, Tanzania has recently in past five years discovered oil, gas and uranium.
This is in addition to the booming tourism industry which is thanks to Zanzibar, and Mt. Kilimanjaro.
坦桑尼亚很快将成为发展速度最快的发展中国家之一。
坦桑尼亚具有独特的优势，它是非洲唯一一个自独立以来没有遭受任何政治动荡的大国。坦桑尼亚所有的权力移交都是在自由公正的选举后进行的。
除了稳定的政治气候外，坦桑尼亚在过去五年还发现了石油天然气和铀等自然资源。
除此之外，由于桑给巴尔岛和乞力马扎罗山的存在，坦桑尼亚的旅游业也在蓬勃发展。
Malaysia is the strongest candidate to be a developed country..malaysia have recently join “very high" HDI club at 0.802 score and have gdp per capita of 11k..malaysia will be high income nation around 2020–2024..and will be fully developed at 2025..romania, chile, argentina and uruguay will also be developed..china also have potential..kazakhstan and turkey will also join the group
马来西亚是最有可能成为发达国家的经济体。马来西亚最近的人类发展指数为0.802，加入了高人类发展指数俱乐部，人均GDP为1.1万美元。马来西亚将在2020年到2024年之间成为高收入国家。罗马尼亚，智利，阿根廷和乌拉圭也将成为发达国家。中国也有成为发达国家的潜力。哈萨克斯坦和土耳其将来也能加入发达国家行列。
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