网友讨论：第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战是否本都可以避免？
Could both World War 1 and World War 2 have been prevented?
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导致第一次世界大战的一连串事件是可以防止的，但...
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Could both World War 1 and World War 2 have been prevented?
第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战是否本都可以避免？
第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战是否本都可以避免？
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, Practicing atheist
Originally Answered: Could both World War 1 and World War 2 be prevented?
The exact sequence of events that led to WW1 could be prevented, but …
Assasination of Franz Ferdinand
However even if Franz Ferdinant wasn’t assasinated, the entire German political apparatus was still eager to find an excuse to go to war against Russia. The reason why WW1 erupted after the assasination was because it served as a casus belli for Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia, which served as a reason for Russia to come to Serbian aid, which served as a reason for Germany to come to Austrian aid, which served as a reason for France and UK to come to Russian aid.
The web of alliances is as valid as they were with the assasination and these countries are eager to get into a war: Germany wanted to expand eastwards to take arable land and mineral wealth of western reaches of Russian empire, France was eager to exact their revenge upon Germany for the defeat in Franco-Prussian war and UK was eager to knock Germany down a notch or two.
You could prevent war from erupting in the summer of 1914, but it would just erupt later, over some other reason. Europe in the early 20th century was a tinderbox and a disaster waiting to happen, there was no way to solve the impasse without a war.
World War 2 is just a continuation of the same basic idea. It could be preventable, had Allies insisted on a strict peace treaty, not a lax truce at Versaillies.
导致第一次世界大战的一连串事件是可以防止的，但...
刺杀弗朗茨-费迪南事件
然而，即使弗朗茨-斐迪南没有被暗杀，整个德国的政治机构仍然急于寻找借口对俄罗斯开战。一战之所以在刺杀事件后爆发，是因为它成为奥匈帝国进攻塞尔维亚的理由，这成为俄罗斯援助塞尔维亚的理由，也成为德国援助奥地利的理由，又成为法国和英国援助俄罗斯的理由。
联盟之网与刺杀事件一样有效，这些国家都渴望卷入战争。德国想向东扩张，夺取俄罗斯帝国西部的耕地和矿产资源，法国急于对德国在普法战争中的失败进行报复，英国则急于把德国打倒将其降低一两个档次。
你可以阻止战争在1914年夏天爆发，但它也会因为其他原因在以后爆发。20世纪初的欧洲是一个火药桶，是一个等待发生的灾难，没有战争就没有办法解决这个僵局。
第二次世界大战只是同一基本理念的延续。如果盟国坚持签订严格的和平条约，而不是在凡尔赛签订宽松的休战协议，那么战争就是不可以避免的。
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Well, there is the theory, that a few years later, the war would have been impossible because of the increasing intertwining of the economies of the involved states.
有一种理论认为，几年后，由于有关国家的经济日益交织在一起，战争就不可能发生了。
That was the theory to be the case ten years before the war already.
这是在战前十年就有的理论。
This is why, after world war one, we never saw another war again.
这就是为什么在第一次世界大战之后，我们再也没有看到另一场战争。
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Thank you! This comment made me laugh harder than all the comedy posts I’ve checked today combined.
谢谢你! 这条评论让我笑得比我今天看的所有笑话的效果加起来还要厉害。
Well, I would say, that is why one of Hitler's most important economical aims was “Autarkie".
好吧，我想说，这就是为什么希特勒最重要的经济目标之一是 "Autarkie（自给自足）"。
If war was deferred by a few years, the newly industrialized Russia + France would have stomped Germant into the ground, regardless of UK or Italian neutrality.
如果战争再推迟几年，新的工业化的俄国+法国会把日耳曼人踩在脚下，不管英国或意大利站在哪一边。
I think WW1 was the result of the movement towards nationalism in the late 19th century. While Britain and France and Russia have been countries for a while, Germany only became a country in 1871, Austria-Hungary formed in 1867, Romania in 1877, Serbia in 1882, and Italy in 1861. Note Belgium only separated from the Netherlands in 1839.
So, it’s possible that all of these states could have avoided war in the early 20th century, but they didn’t.
我认为第一次世界大战是19世纪末民族主义运动的结果。虽然英国和法国以及俄罗斯成为国家已经有一段时间了，但德国在1871年才成为国家，奥匈帝国在1867年形成，罗马尼亚在1877年，塞尔维亚在1882年，意大利在1861年。注意比利时在1839年才从荷兰分离出来。
因此，所有这些国家都有可能在20世纪初避免战争，但他们没有这样做。
I agree that nationalism was the reason for WW1. But I believe Austria-Hungary was the anomaly, since it consisted of several nationalities, slavs of different languages, hungarians, italians, and germanspeaking austrian. Under the pressure of nationalism in its parts it would implode eventually. All the other big powers gather like vultures to expand their influence when that would happen. So that was the situation when the duke was shot. At that point Austria put unmeetable demands on Serbia and the war erupted.
Interestingly enough we had a similar situation when Sovjet fell apart 30 years ago. In my opinion all countries involved did show restraint in their quest for influence and large conflict has been avoided. It can be argued that the situation now is unfair, but a great war has been avoided and for that I am grateful.
我同意民族主义是一战的原因。但我认为奥匈帝国是一个反常的国家，因为它由几个民族组成的，包括不同语言的斯拉夫人、匈牙利人、意大利人和讲德国话的奥地利人。在其各部分的民族主义的压力下，它最终会内爆。当这种情况发生时，所有其他大国都会像秃鹰一样聚集在一起，分而食之扩大自己的影响力。所以，这就是公爵被枪杀时的情况。这时，奥地利对塞尔维亚提出了无法满足的要求，于是战争爆发了。
有趣的是，30年前苏联解体时，我们也有类似的情况。在我看来，所有相关国家在追求影响力方面确实表现出了克制，大规模的冲突也得以避免。可以说，现在的情况是不公平的，但一场大战被避免了，为此我很感激。
“ But I believe Austria-Hungary was the anomaly, since it consisted of several nationalities, slavs of different languages, hungarians, italians, and germanspeaking austrian. Under the pressure of nationalism in its parts it would implode eventually.”
Isn't the same true for the British Empire?
“但我认为奥匈帝国是一个反常的国家，因为它由几个民族组成的，包括不同语言的斯拉夫人、匈牙利人、意大利人和讲德国话的奥地利人。在其各部分的民族主义的压力下，它最终会内爆。”
大英帝国不也是这样吗？
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I think WW2 could have been prevented. Unlike WW1,it was only Germany under Hitler that wanted a rematch. Another leader could have stirred Germany off the warpath.
Everyone else had had enough of war in WW1 and other wars like the Russian civil war,Russia-Poland war,Greco-Turkish war, etc. Even the USSR didn't seem to want a war but I could be wrong. Italy wanted a war but couldn't and wouldn't do anything in Europe without Germany's help. Without WW2 they would have stuck to conquering Ethiopia. Similarly Japan wouldn't have attacked Pearl Harbor,the Philippines and European colonies in Asia if Germany didn't support them or atleast kept these powers busy elsewhere. Other than these countries no one else wanted a war.So without Hitler and Germany,at best(or worst) you could have a war in the East.
我认为第二次世界大战本来是可以避免的。与一战不同的是，只有希特勒领导下的德国想要进行重赛。如果是另一位领导人在位则可以把德国从战争的道路上带回去。
其他国家在一战和其他战争中已经受够了战争，如俄国内战、俄国-波兰战争、希腊-土耳其战争等。甚至苏联似乎也不希望发生战争，但我可能是错的。意大利想要一场战争，但如果没有德国的帮助，它不能也不会在欧洲掀起什么波澜。如果没有第二次世界大战，他们会坚持征服埃塞俄比亚。同样，如果没有德国的支持，日本也不会袭击珍珠港、菲律宾和欧洲在亚洲的殖民地，或者至少会让这些大国在其他地方保持忙碌。除了这些国家之外，没有人希望发生战争。因此，如果没有希特勒和德国，在最好的情况下（或最坏的情况下），只有东方会发生战争。
Whoa.. France get butt hurt easily.
哇......法国人这么容易急眼吗。
Franco-Prußian war was devastating though. Not only was the loss of the war humiliating, but German ownership of elßas-lothringen served as a constant reminder of the defeat. France kinda needed revenge. Just like Germany did after WW1. At least, that's how they felt
法国-普鲁士战争是毁灭性的。不仅战争的失利令人羞愧，而且德国对阿尔萨斯-洛林的所有权也时刻提醒着人们失败的原因。法国有点急于复仇。就像德国在一战后所做的那样。至少，他们是这样认为的。
Well, it was a German speaking province that had not been with France for very long.
怎么说呢，这是一个讲德语的省份，与法国在一起的时间并不长。
, Growing our own food for taste, pleasure and saving money
Yes.
World war two was effectively a continuation of WW1, so by preventing the first one, we prevent the second.
Looking in detail at WW1.
Between the mess of alliances, treaties and the like between various small countries and assorted great powers, Europe fell into war by accident and stupidity.
The war couldn’t have happened before 1913. The central powers could be easily cut off from Nitrate imports, and it wasn’t until 1913 and the Harber process that we could synthesis ammonia, and so nitrates. No nitrates, no explosives or propellents, no world war.
At the same time, Russia was industrialising rapidly, and building railways. Without the extra stresses of WW1, the Czar remains in charge for at least long enough to carry out these plans.
The Central powers wanted to avoid a two front war where the Russians had industrialised too, as they rightly saw it as suicide.
So we’re looking at a 10–15 year window, where if diplomacy and just a little little luck holds, we get past the time when WW1 is possible.
Putting on my really cynical hat, one way to keep Germany happy would be to look at where in the world there was left for the great powers to carve up.
Germany was late for this course, and missed out on plum pudding
But got to take part in this one.
And a nice slice of Turkey as well
Give Germany an extra helping in either of the later courses, and it stays happy until the risk of war has passed.
是的，可以避免。
第二次世界大战实际上是第一次世界大战的延续，所以通过防止第一次世界大战的发生，我们可以防止第二次世界大战。
详细地回看一下一战。
在各种小国和各种大国之间混乱的联盟、条约等之间，欧洲因意外和愚蠢而陷入战争。
战争不可能在1913年之前发生。主要大国可以很容易地切断硝酸盐的进口，直到1913年有了哈伯工艺，我们才可以合成氨，从而合成硝酸盐。没有硝酸盐，就没有炸药或推进剂，就没有世界大战。
与此同时，俄罗斯正在迅速实现工业化，并修建铁路。没有一战的额外压力，沙皇至少有足够长的时间仍然可以负责实施这些计划。
主要大国希望避免俄国人也工业化之后的两线作战，因为他们很正确地认识到那是自杀。
因此，我们正在寻找一个10-15年的窗口，在那里，如果外交手段足够灵活和保持多一点点的运气，我们就可以度过这个窗口，第一次世界大战就可能被避免了。
我再愤世嫉俗一点，让德国高兴的一个办法是看看世界上还有什么地方可以让大国瓜分。
德国在这个过程中迟到了，错过了摘桃子的机会
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但还是参了这边一腿
还有可口的土耳其
在后面的过程中，给德国多一份帮助，它就会保持快乐，直到战争的风险过去。
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There was also an element of “revanchisme” and wanting to go to war, the French wanted to recapture Alsace Lorraine which had been lost in the catastrophic Franco-Prussian war of 1870
还有一个因素是"复仇主义"想要开战，法国人想夺回在1870年灾难性的普法战争中失去的阿尔萨斯-洛林。
True! But, the longer Germany holds it, the more it becomes Elßas-Lothringen and the more the memory of French alssase-Lorraine fades. If by 1950, the majority of Europe's borders are the same as they were in 1914 (with perhaps the exception of an independent Ireland, and maybe a broken-up Austria-Hungary), I think everything would really settle into place for good. And as Europe transitioned towards something like the EU or mitteleuropa it was always going to become more connected and the borders don't matter as much anyway
确实！但是，德国持有它的时间越长，它就越成为德国的Elßas-Lothringen，对往日作为法国的alssase-Lorraine的记忆就越淡。如果到了1950年，欧洲的大部分边界与1914年一样（也许只有独立的爱尔兰和可能解体的奥匈帝国除外），我想一切都会真正地稳定下来。随着欧洲向欧盟或米特罗巴这样的政体过渡，它会变得越来越紧密相连，而且边界也不那么重要了。
For Ireland and Scotland, a Home Rule bill had passed the UK parliament in 1914,but it wasn’t put into effect due to WW1. If it had passed a year earlier, or the war started a year later, you’d almost certainly be looking at a united island of Ireland, which could plausibly be inside or outside the UK.
对于爱尔兰和苏格兰来说，1914年英国议会通过了一项自治法案，但由于一战而没有付诸实施。如果法案早一年通过，或者战争晚一年开始，你几乎肯定会看到一个统一的爱尔兰岛，它可能处于英国境内或境外。
Or, without Bismarck and Prussia leading German unification, you get a less militaristic Germany, that unifies later, also avoiding WWI. Heck, if the Kaiser who only served 99 days lived a normal lifespan, it might have been avoided.
或者，如果没有俾斯麦和普鲁士领导德国的统一，你会得到一个不那么军国主义的德国，迟一点再统一，也就避免了第一次世界大战。哎呀，如果只在位99天的那位德皇有正常的寿命，可能都能避免了。
Yes. We’d probably need to remove Bismarck from history to maybe avoid WW1 or make it much more limited.
Even then it is doubtful because at the time so many rulers were itching to play with their new impressive (read: unprecedentedly destructive) military toys!
是的。我们可能需要将俾斯麦从历史中删除，以避免第一次世界大战，或使其发挥的作用更加有限。
即使如此，这也是值得怀疑的，因为当时那么多统治者都迫不及待地想试试他们新的令人印象深刻（读作：前所未有的破坏性）的军事玩具
On the other hand if Bismarck got what he wanted the war would also be avoided. Bismarck first and foremost wanted a united Germany that could defend itself from its neighbors. He did not WANT a war. The idea of a “militaristic Prussia” is not based in myth, but is taken to extreme lengths. Prussia was no more militaristic than Napoleonic France or Czarist Russia. Had Bismarck been in power at the onset of WW1 he likely would not have sided with Austria-Hungary.
另一方面，如果俾斯麦得到了他想要的东西，那么战争也会被避免。俾斯麦首先希望有一个统一的德国，能够抵御邻国的入侵。他并不希望发生战争。关于"军国主义的普鲁士"的说法并非空穴来风，只是被推向了极端。普鲁士的军国主义程度并不比拿破仑法国或沙皇俄国高。如果俾斯麦在一战爆发时掌权，他很可能就不会站在奥匈帝国一边了。
Probably true, he'd have avoided a pointless navel arms race that Germany could never win as well. He said that Germany should be allied with at least two other European powers, one of which should be Russia. But, the king dies, then his son dies 99 days later, and the new king is someone Bismarck never bothered to build a positive relationship with, so out of power he went, leaving a unified Germany.
可能是这样，他也会避免一场德国永远不可能赢得的无意义的脐带军备竞赛。他说，德国应该至少与另外两个欧洲大国结盟，其中一个应该是俄国。但是，国王死了，99天后他的儿子也死了，而新国王是一个俾斯麦从未费心与之建立积极关系的人，所以他下台了，留下一个统一的德国。
I’m not so sure , even with those territories Germany would still play behind France and the uk. The real reason the Wilhelm wish for Germany to have an empire was for it to have ‘its place in the sun’. This just would not be satisfied.
我不太确定这会奏效，即使有了这些领土，德国仍然会排在法国和英国的后面。威廉希望德国拥有一个帝国的真正原因是希望它有"阳光下的位置"。这一点是不会被满足的。
, I have an associates degree in history, as well as intensive scholarship
Absolutely. While Europe was a tinderbox, that spark could have been avoided. More prudence on on the Habsburgs and Serbs part and there’s no cassius belli. Germany and France wanted their rematch but had to wait for the Balkans to heat up as an excuse. No excuse and they lose their allies and risk total defeat.
Better leadership in any of the powers involved and they wouldnt’ have blundered into the war. Pan-Slavism at the same time as Russian industrial weakness, German imperial aggression, French revenge, British international policing, Austrian resurgence, Balkan defiance, led to the war.
Wilhelm was a cocky bully. Nicholas an arrogant buffoon. Poincaré a greedy tyrant. Asquith a callous weakling. Franz Joseph lazy and pompous. Better leadership could have prevented this.
完全可以避免。虽然欧洲是一个火药桶，但这个火花是可以避免的。哈布斯堡家族和塞尔维亚人更谨慎一些，他们也没有什么真的过不去的。德国和法国想再战，但不得不等待巴尔干半岛升温作为借口。没有借口，他们就会失去他们的盟友，并有彻底失败的危险。
任何一个大国如果有更好的领导，他们就不会贸然参战。泛斯拉夫主义与俄国的工业弱点、德意志帝国的侵略、法国的报复、英国的国际警务、奥地利的复活、巴尔干的反抗等因素同时导致了战争。
威廉是一个狂妄的恶棍。尼古拉是一个傲慢的小丑。庞加莱是个贪婪的暴君。阿斯奎特是个冷酷无情的弱者。弗朗茨-约瑟夫懒惰而浮夸。更好的领导可以避免这种情况。
, Voracious reader of biography and history
Doubtful. By the late 1800’s, in large part due to events like the industrial revolution, the feudal system that had functioned across Europe and Asia for thousands of years was falling apart. The major empires were slowly falling apart. WWI was fundamentally about the collapse of the major empires (Britain, Russia, Ottoman, Austria-Hungary) and the restructuring of the remnants.
WWII in EUROPE can be directly traced to the brutal reparations required of Germany by the Treaty of Versailles. Germany was in economic disaster, and the only path out they saw was to go after those who caused the disaster. So, it would have been possible to have Versailles designed in such a way that Germany didn’t starve—which could have prevented much of the European side of WWII.
WWII in Asia-Pacific was fundamentally about Japan wanting to out-Britain the British and establish a massive empire of their own on that side of the planet.
我对此表示怀疑。到19世纪末，在很大程度上由于工业革命等事件，在欧洲和亚洲运行了数千年的封建制度正在瓦解。各大帝国都在慢慢瓦解。一战从根本上讲是关于主要帝国（英国、俄罗斯、奥斯曼、奥匈帝国）的崩溃和残余的重组。
欧洲的二战可以直接追溯到《凡尔赛条约》要求德国进行的残酷赔偿。德国当时处于经济灾难之中，他们能看到的唯一出路是对那些造成这个灾难的人下手。因此，本来可以通过设计凡尔赛条约使德国不至于过于悲惨--这就可以避免二战中欧洲方面的许多事情。
亚太地区的二战从根本上说是日本想超越英国人，在地球的那一边建立一个属于自己的庞大帝国。
, Quora's Angry Con-Prog
Pre-WW1 Europe was a powder keg ready to explode at any moment.
Basically, almost ever every power in Europe had had some recent embarrassment on the international stage, wherein they’d had to betray a minor ally in order to save some larger obxtive. And each one’s leaders had vowed to themselves “not next time”. Next time, they would stand tall and redeem their national honor. The opposition would be defeated quickly by this moment of sheer resolve.
When everyone in a bar fight is trying to make up for the embarrassment of losing the previous bar fight, and no one is strong enough to KO the rest in the first punch, you just end up with a bunch of idiots pummeling each other into a bloody pulp for hours.
That’s WW1. And to wit, even preventing the assassination of the archduke wouldn’t have stopped a war. Europe was in an era of profound political turbulence. Revolutionaries were agitating left and right, and political assassinations were a dime a dozen. It would only have been a matter of time until some other assassination or crisis would have sparked the war off.
If by some miracle no spark ever arose, it would have taken at least 20–30 spark-less years for the underlying political crises to resolve and leaderships to change enough that no war was possible anymore.
WW2 was mostly predicated on the outcome of WW1. It could possibly have been prevented by a less egregious Treaty of Versailles, but that’s a pretty tall order. It’s hard to understand today, with fascism having been completely discredited, but Europe was only just then starting to emerge from millennia of authoritarian thought. Fascism really wasn’t all that much of a stretch from pervasive and deeply entrenched right-wing attitudes about authority, the family, power, and violence. It took two apocalyptic wars to discredit it! At the time, it probably seemed like just a secularist extension of the same right-wing values that had kept monarchy and feudalism intact for so long.WW1 was sparked off by the underlying thirst for extreme solutions to the failures of the traditional European state at managing the outcomes of the Industrial Revolution. Over time, it became apparent that Com...ism and fascism were the two most popular of those extrema, and because entrenched power has traditionally been more fearful of the extreme left than the extreme right, fascism won the opportunity to make its case, which it horrifically did in WW2.Liberal democracy ended both wars. At the end of the day, it’s likely that liberal democracy would have been the key to preventing them. Sadly, what actually happened was that liberal democracy wasn’t yet strong enough to do so.
一战前的欧洲是一个火药桶，随时都会爆炸。
基本上，欧洲的每一个大国最近都在国际舞台上遇到了一些尴尬，他们不得不背叛一个小盟友，以挽救一些大的目标。每个国家的领导人都对自己发誓 "下不为例"。下一次，他们要挺身而出，挽回他们的国家荣誉。反对这一立场的人将被这一刻纯粹的决心迅速击垮。
当在酒吧打架的每个人都想弥补在之前的酒吧打架中输掉的尴尬，又没有人强大到可以在第一拳中KO其他人，你能得到的结果就只是以一群白痴互相把对付打得鼻青脸肿头破血流而告终。
这就是第一次世界大战。说起来，即使防止大公被暗杀也不会阻止战争的发生。当时的欧洲正处于一个深刻的政治动荡的时代。革命者在左右逢源，政治暗杀事件层出不穷。迟早会有其他刺杀事件或危机引发战争。
如果奇迹般地没有出现火花，那么至少需要20-30年也没有火花的时间来解决潜在的政治危机和领导层的变化，以至于不再可能发生战争。
第二次世界大战主要是以第一次世界大战的结果为前提的。它有可能被一个不那么严酷的《凡尔赛条约》所阻止，但这是一个相当高的要求。今天的我们很难理解，在当今世界法西斯主义已经完全失去了信誉，但欧洲当时才刚刚开始从几千年的专制思想中走出来。法西斯主义从普遍和根深蒂固的右翼权威、家庭、权力和暴力的态度中走出来，真的不是那么容易击破的。两次世界末日的战争才使它失去了信誉！在当时，它可能被认为是最重要的意识形态。在当时，它可能只是一个世俗主义的延伸，同样的右翼价值观使君主制和封建主义保持了这么久。
第一次世界大战是由对传统欧洲国家在管理工业革命成果方面的失败的极端解决方案的潜在渴求引发的。随着时间的推移，共产主义和法西斯主义显然是这些极端主义中最受欢迎的两种，而且由于根深蒂固的权力历来相比极右翼更害怕极左翼，所以法西斯主义赢得了证明自己的机会，它在第二次世界大战中可怕地做到了。
自由民主结束了这两场战争。说到底，自由民主很可能是防止这些战争的关键。可悲的是，实际发生的情况是，自由民主还没有强大到足以做到这一点。
, Have read a lot of books on history and enjoy it
Virtually any historical outcome is preventable in hindsight.
If you prevent WWI, you prevent WW2 from happening if by no other fact that you can’t have a second world war if you don’t have a first.
The best way to prevent WWI is to prevent Wilhelm from becoming Kaiser, or at the very least moderating his views. The latter was nearly impossible, so the former is the better option. The only question is how to prevent Wilhelm from becoming Kaiser in a way that doesn’t inflame already inflamed passions such as existed in pre-WWI Europe.
事后诸葛亮来看，几乎任何历史结果都是可以预防的。
如果你能防止第一次世界大战，你就能防止第二次世界大战的发生，如果没有其他的事实，如果你没有第一次世界大战，你就不可能有第二次世界大战。
防止第一次世界大战的最好办法是防止威廉成为德皇，或者至少是缓和他的观点。后者几乎不可能，所以前者是更好的选择。唯一的问题是，如何防止威廉成为德皇，而又不激起已经被激起的激情，例如在一战前的欧洲存在的各种激烈情绪。
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He almost didn’t!
His brother was due to become Kaiser earlier on but he had a toothache which the diagnosed as minor but actually had mouth cancer and the doctors waited too long and he passed away prematurely!
His character and disposition was completely different from his brother who unfortunately became the warlike Kaiser!
他差点就与王位无缘!
他的哥哥本应在早些时候成为凯撒，但他的牙痛被诊断为小病，但实际上是口腔癌，医生等得太久，使他过早地离开了人世！
他的性格和气质与他的哥哥完全不同，他哥哥的不幸成使其有幸成为一个好战的凯撒!