UK’s Brexit losses more than 178 times bigger than trade deal gains
-All trade deals combined worth less than 50p per person a year, analysis of government figures shows

英国脱欧的损失超过贸易协议收益的178倍
——对政府数据的分析显示，所有贸易协议加起来的价值每人每年的不到50便士



新闻：

All of Boris Johnson’s new post-Brexit trade deals put together will have an economic benefit of just £3 to £7 per person over the next 15 years, according to the government’s own figures.

根据政府自己的数据，鲍里斯·约翰逊在脱欧后签署的所有新贸易协议加在一起，在未来15年里每人将仅获得3至7英镑的经济效益。

The tiny economic boost – amounting to just 0.01 to 0.02 per cent of GDP, and less than 50p per person a year – is dwarfed by the economic hit from leaving the EU, which the government estimates at 4 per cent of GDP over the same period.

这一微小的经济增长——仅相当于GDP的0.01%至0.02%，人均每年不到50便士——与脱欧带来的经济冲击相比相形见绌。政府估计，同期脱欧带来的经济冲击占GDP的4%。

According to analysis commissioned by The Independent from top academics at the University of Sussex UK Trade Policy Observatory, the much-trumpeted free trade agreements (FTAs) “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.

英国《独立报》委托英国苏塞克斯大学贸易政策观察中心的顶级学者进行的分析显示，备受吹捧的自由贸易协定“仅仅是英国在弥补脱欧造成的GDP损失方面面临的挑战的皮毛”。

Mr Johnson has boasted of the deals creating a “new dawn” and representing “global Britain at its best” – but just two of the dozens announced since the UK left the EU are expected to have any measurable economic impact at all.

约翰逊吹嘘这些协议创造了一个“新的黎明”，代表了“全球英国的最佳状态”——但自英国脱欧以来宣布的数十项协议中，预计只有两项会产生任何可衡量的经济影响。

Official estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility point to a Brexit loss of more than £1,250 per person over the coming years – more than 178 times the most optimistic prediction for the benefits from the trade deals.

英国预算责任办公室的官方估计显示，未来几年，英国人均将因脱欧而损失逾1250英镑，这是对贸易协议带来好处的最乐观预测的178倍以上。

The analysis notes that the vast majority of FTAs announced by the government – such as those with South Korea, Singapore, or Vietnam – are simply attempts to replace treaties that those countries have with the EU, which Britain previously enjoyed as a member.

该分析指出，政府宣布的绝大多数自由贸易协定，如与韩国、新加坡或越南的自由贸易协定，只是试图取代这些国家已有的与欧盟的条约，而英国此前是欧盟成员国。

“They add nothing to UK trade, and, because they are not perfect replicas, actually harm it very slightly,” wrote top trade economist Professor L Alan Winters, who conducted the analysis with Guillermo Larbalestier, the centre’s research officer.

顶级贸易经济学家L·艾伦·温特斯教授写道：“这些协定对英国贸易没有任何贡献，而且，由于它们并非完美的复制品，实际上对英国贸易还造成了小小的损害。”温特斯与该中心的研究官员吉列尔莫·拉巴莱斯提尔共同进行了上述分析。

Labour seized on the findings and said the government had “gambled” on Britain’s prosperity and lost. The opposition called for Mr Johnson’s barebones Brexit trade deal with the EU to be improved so that the UK would “stop the haemorrhaging of our trade with Europe”.

工党抓住调查结果不放，说政府在英国的繁荣上“赌博”，结果赌输了。反对派呼吁完善约翰逊与欧盟达成的基本脱欧贸易协议，以“阻止英国与欧洲贸易的大出血”。
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A source at the Department for International Trade claimed the analysis was based on “old, static” figures – though most of the data was released just last summer as part of the government’s strategic case for the agreements.

国际贸易部的一位消息人士称，该分析是基于“旧的、静态的”数据——尽管大部分数据是去年夏天才发布的，作为政府协议的战略理由的一部分。

“Our Global Trade Outlook – published in September – shows the centre of gravity on global trade is moving away from Europe and towards fast-growing markets in Asia-Pacific,” a spokesperson for the Department for International Trade said of the findings.

“我们9月份发布的《全球贸易展望》显示，全球贸易的重心正从欧洲转向亚太地区快速增长的市场，”英国国际贸易部的一位发言人在谈到调查结果时表示。

“Our strategy is latching the UK economy to these markets of tomorrow, and seizing the huge economic opportunities as an agile, independent trading nation.”

“我们的战略是将英国经济与这些未来的市场挂钩，并作为一个灵活、独立的贸易国抓住巨大的经济机遇。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


But according to the analysis prepared for The Independent, even a new agreement with Japan, which the UK government has presented as a significant win that goes beyond what was agreed with the EU, is “modelled extremely closely on the EU-Japan agreement, with a few small differences”.

但根据为《独立报》准备的分析，即便是与日本达成的新协议——英国政府将其描述为超越与欧盟协议的重大胜利——也“极其接近于现有的欧盟-日本协议，只是存在一些小差异”。

In that case, the benefits of a minor extension on digital trade are expected to be overshadowed by a technical change to customs rules, which will put some UK exporters at a disadvantage compared to their EU counterparts.

在这种情况下，预计略微延长数字贸易的好处将被关税规则的技术变化所掩盖，这将使一些英国出口商与欧盟同行相比处于不利地位。

Taking the EU’s own deal with Japan into account, the academics wrote: “Relative to having no agreement, the government estimated that [the Japan agreement] would raise UK GDP by £1.5bn (0.07 per cent, or £22 per head), but relative to what the UK would have had without Brexit the gains will be negligible or negative.”

考虑到欧盟自己与日本的协议，学者们写道：“政府估计，相对于没有协议，（与日本的协议）将使英国GDP增加15亿英镑（0.07%，即人均22英镑），但相对于如果英国没有脱欧而言，所获得的收益将微不足道或为负值。”

Only in the case of the deals in principle with Australia and New Zealand is there expected to be any new economic benefit – but these countries represent such a small part of UK trade that they have little effect. The analysis also notes that the agreements have not yet been signed or ratified and are so far just “agreements in principle”.

只有在与澳大利亚和新西兰达成原则性协议的情况下，才有望获得新的经济利益——但这些国家在英国贸易中所占比例太小，因此收效甚微。分析还指出，这些协议尚未签署或批准，到目前为止只是“原则上的协议”。

The DIT source added that the government wanted another “wave of ambitious trade deals with major economies like India, Canada, Mexico and the Gulf” – though these are yet to materialise. The government has in recent months stopped claiming it is close to a trade deal with the US – previously the biggest prize – after Donald Trump’s election defeat dashed any hope of it happening soon.

国际贸易部消息人士补充说，政府希望“与印度、加拿大、墨西哥和海湾等主要经济体达成另一波雄心勃勃的贸易协议”，尽管这些协议尚未实现。在唐纳德·特朗普竞选失败后，政府在最近几个月里不再声称即将与美国达成贸易协议——此前这才是最大的战利品——因为这一协议很快达成的希望破灭了。

But the UK Trade Policy Observatory academics dismissed the idea that trade agreements could ever conceivably counteract the economic damage of Brexit.

但英国贸易政策观察组织的学者驳斥了贸易协定可能会抵消英国脱欧造成的经济损害的观点。

“Non-EU partners account for about half of UK total trade and so, to counteract the OBR’s 4 per cent loss from Brexit, would require agreements with each and every one of them to induce trade changes that create a 4 per cent increment to UK GDP. That is nowhere in sight in the numbers in the table,” they wrote.

“非欧盟伙伴约占英国贸易总额的一半，因此，为了抵消英国退欧给预算责任办公室带来的4%的损失，需要与每一个非欧盟伙伴达成协议，促使贸易变化，为英国GDP带来4%的增长。”这在表格中的数字中是看不到的。

“The sad answer is that the government is happy to accept, on our behalf, the economic losses from Brexit in return for political benefits (sovereignty), and trade agreements with other countries are merely making the best of a bad job from an economic perspective.”

“可悲的答案是，政府很开心地代表我们接受英国脱欧带来的经济损失，以换取政治利益（主权），而与其他国家的贸易协议从经济角度来看只是在把糟糕的工作做得最好。”

Emily Thornberry, the shadow international trade secretary, told The Independent: “The government’s great economic gamble has been that we could make up for the losses created by their botched Brexit deal by increasing our trade with the rest of the world.

英国影子内阁国际贸易大臣艾米莉·索恩伯里告诉《独立报》：“政府最大的经济赌博是，我们可以通过增加与世界其他地区的贸易，来弥补英国拙劣的脱欧协议造成的损失。

“But what this analysis shows is that – even according to the government’s own figures – that gamble was always doomed to fail.

“但这一分析表明，即使根据政府自己的数据，这场赌博也注定要失败。

“It is time for a change of course. The government cannot continue ploughing on with a policy that isn’t working; we need action instead to stop the haemorrhaging of our trade with Europe, and fix the holes in the Brexit deal.”

“现在是改变路线的时候了。政府不能继续推行一项不起作用的政策；相反，我们需要采取行动，阻止我们与欧洲的贸易大出血，并修补英国脱欧协议中的漏洞。”