The UK has one of the highest Covid infection rates in the world right now: Here’s why

英国目前是世界上新冠感染率最高的国家之一：原因如下

-When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe.
-The U.K.’s speedy vaccination rollout was widely praised and helped to bring cases under control.
-Now the situation is looking dramatically different, with the country recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — giving it one of the worst daily infection rates in the world.

——2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球时，英国受到了严重打击，报告的病例和死亡人数在欧洲是最高的。
——英国迅速推出疫苗接种受到广泛赞誉，帮助控制了病例。
——现在的情况看起来截然不同，该国每天记录了近5万例新增病例，使其成为世界上每日感染率最糟糕的国家之一。


(Two fans of Manchester City soccer club stand out for wearing face masks during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Burnley on October 16, 2021.)

（2021年10月16日，曼彻斯特城足球俱乐部的两名球迷在曼彻斯特城对伯恩利的英超联赛中戴上了口罩。）（译注：看外貌好像都是亚裔）
新闻：

When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe. A speedy vaccination program managed to turn things around, however, and brought cases under control.

2020年新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球时，英国受到了严重打击，报告的病例和死亡人数在欧洲是最高的。然而，一项快速的疫苗接种计划设法扭转了局面，使病例得到了控制。

Now the situation looks dramatically different. The country is recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — meaning it has one of the worst daily infection rates in the world.

但现在的情况看起来截然不同。该国每天记录近5万例新增病例，这意味着该国是世界上每日感染率最糟糕的国家之一。

On Monday, 49,156 new cases were recorded, marking the highest number in three months and taking the total number of cases to over 8.4 million in the U.K. The total number of fatalities to 138,629 — one of the highest death tolls in the world.

周一，报告了49156新增病例，这是3个月来的最高数字，使英国的病例总数超过了840万。死亡总人数为138629人，是世界上死亡人数最多的国家之一。

Meanwhile, hospitalizations and deaths have been steadily increasing since the summer when Covid restrictions in England were lifted on July 19. Pubs, restaurants and nightclubs reopened and mask-wearing became (for the most part) voluntary.

与此同时，自7月19日英国取消对新冠肺炎的限制以来，住院和死亡人数一直在稳步增加。酒吧、餐馆和夜总会已经重新开张，（在大多数情况下）戴口罩成了自愿行为。

Thankfully, the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths have been rising at a much slower rate than earlier in the pandemic, largely due to Covid vaccines being highly effective at preventing severe infection, hospitalization and deaths.

值得庆幸的是，住院和死亡人数的增长速度比大流行早期要慢得多，这主要是因为新冠疫苗在预防严重感染、住院和死亡方面非常有效。

Nonetheless, healthcare professionals in the country’s National Health Service are warning of a tough winter ahead.

尽管如此，英国国家医疗体系的医疗专业人士警告称，寒冬即将来临。

What’s going on?

正在发生什么？

Experts say there are a variety of reasons for the U.K.’s steep Covid numbers — ranging from the half-hearted mask adoption (even when masks are required, such as on public transport, the rule is rarely enforced) to large indoor gatherings that have allowed the virus to spread.

专家表示，英国病例数量的急剧上升有多种原因——从不认真戴口罩（即使在公共交通工9具上需要戴口罩，这一规定也很少执行），到导致病毒传播的大型室内集会。

The U.K.‘s hesitation in vaccinating younger teenagers, something that other countries in Europe and the U.S. did much earlier, and the return to schools in September, have also been cited as reasons for the sharp rise in cases, although the boom in infections among 0-18 year olds is now ebbing as infections rise in their parents’ generation, data shows.

英国在为青少年接种疫苗方面犹豫不决（欧洲和美国的其他国家早得多就采取了这一措施），以及英国9月份重返学校，也被认为是病例急剧上升的原因，数据显示， 0-18岁年龄段的感染人数的激增趋势正在消退，尽管他们父母那一代的感染人数正在上升。

Perhaps most ironically, the U.K.’s early vaccination rollout — which began in December 2020 and was one of the first in the world — is also seen as contributing to its high case rate now.

也许最具讽刺意味的是，英国的早期疫苗接种——始于2020年12月，是世界上最早的疫苗接种之一——也被认为导致了现在的高病例率。

That’s because we now know — due to an increasing body of data — that immunity in vaccinated people wanes after about six months. The spread of the much more infectious delta Covid variant in the spring and summer is also seen as a factor that has diminished vaccine efficacy.

这是因为我们现在知道——根据越来越多的数据显示——接种疫苗的人的免疫力在大约六个月后会减弱。传染性更强的新型冠状病毒在春季和夏季的传播也被认为是降低疫苗效力的一个因素。

Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted his assessment of the U.K.’s situation on Saturday, stating: “Why does the UK currently have 6-fold hospital admissions and a 3-fold higher death rate compared with Europe? Among [the] possible explanations, two that stand out are less use of mitigation measures and less vaccination of kids, age 12-17.”

斯克里普斯研究转化研究所的创始人兼主任埃里克·托波尔博士周六在推特上发表了他对英国情况的评估，他说：“为什么英国目前的住院人数是欧洲（大陆）的6倍，死亡率是欧洲（大陆）的3倍？在可能的解释中，有两个突出的原因是缓解措施的应用减少和12-17岁儿童的疫苗接种减少。”

He noted that reliance on the AstraZeneca vaccine (where effectiveness has been found to decline slightly more over time than the Pfizer vaccine) as another possible contributing factor.

他指出，对阿斯利康疫苗的依赖（药效随着时间的推移下降幅度略大于辉瑞疫苗）是另一个可能的因素。

While, “another potential explanation is that the U.K. vaccinated earlier than rest of Europe, and therefore has manifest more waning of protection, especially among older people,” he noted. On a more positive note, Topol noted that “the U.K. has done far better than the U.S. for uncoupling cases from hospitalizations and deaths.”

然而，“另一个可能的解释是，英国比欧洲其他国家更早接种疫苗，因此表现出更多的保护减弱，特别是在老年人中，”他指出。从积极的方面来看，托波尔指出，“英国在区分住院病例和死亡病例方面做得比美国好得多。”

In light of what we know about waning immunity, the U.K. (like Israel, the U.S. and other countries in Europe) decided in September to roll out booster shots to the over-50s, medical staff and anyone with underlying health conditions.

根据我们对免疫力下降的了解，英国（像以色列、美国和其他欧洲国家）在9月份决定向50岁以上的人、医务人员和任何有潜在健康问题的人推出加强注射。

Those who received their second dose at least six months ago are being asked to come forward first. Currently around 6.5 million people in England are eligible for a booster, with the NHS so far having administered around 3.6 million booster shots, data shows.

那些至少在六个月前接受第二剂注射的人被要求首先站出来。数据显示，目前英格兰约有650万人有资格接受加强注射，国家医疗体系迄今已经注射了约360万剂加强针。

Experts have called on the government to ramp up vaccinations in unvaccinated groups, mainly in young people, and to roll out boosters faster. They have also warned against complacency this winter or a reliance on a controversial “herd immunity” strategy.

专家们呼吁政府增加未接种疫苗人群（主要是年轻人）的疫苗接种，并更快地推出加强针。他们还警告说，今年冬天不要自满，也不要依赖有争议的“群体免疫”策略。

“The U.K. seems to be slowly waking up to the fact that Covid cases are too high, but the reality is they’ve been soaring for months and many countries have put us on their red list,” Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, which collects and analyses Covid data, noted last week.

“英国似乎正在慢慢意识到病例数量太高的事实，但现实是，它们已经飙升了几个月，许多国家已经把我们列入了红色名单，”伦敦国王学院遗传流行病学教授、ZOE COVID研究应用程序（用于收集和分析COVID数据）的首席科学家蒂姆·斯佩克特上周指出。

“Infections remain high in young people, and look to be spilling over into the 35-55 year olds. If these increases creep into the over 55s it could spell disaster for the NHS this winter,” he noted. “With cases so high, it’s clear that herd immunity isn’t happening, and the risk is most people continue to believe they are safe if they have had Covid or a vaccine ... We need to be doing all we can to get everyone double vaccinated and stop waiting for herd immunity to happen through natural infection.”

“在年轻人中感染率仍然很高，而且似乎会蔓延到35-55岁的人群。如果这些增长蔓延到55岁以上的人群，这可能会给今年冬天的国家医疗体系带来灾难，”他指出。“鉴于病例如此之高，显然没有获得群体免疫，风险是大多数人继续认为，如果他们已经感染过新冠或接种过疫苗，他们就是安全的……我们需要尽我们所能让每个人接种两次疫苗，停止等待通过自然感染产生群体免疫。”

Variant worries

变异病毒的担忧

There are also growing concerns about a descendent of the delta Covid variant that is being identified in an increasing number of U.K. Covid cases, with some suggesting it could be another possible factor in rising case numbers.

人们也越来越担心在英国越来越多的新冠病例中发现的德尔塔变体的后代，一些人认为它可能是病例数量上升的另一个可能因素。

Last Friday, the U.K.’s Health Security Agency issued a report in which it said “a delta sublineage newly designated as AY.4.2 is noted to be expanding in England” and that it was monitoring the subtype.

上周五，英国卫生安全局发布了一份报告，称“一个新被指定为AY.4.2的德尔塔亚型正在英格兰扩张”，该机构正在监测该亚型。

“This sublineage is currently increasing in frequency. It includes spike mutations A222V and Y145H. In the week beginning 27 September 2021 (the last week with complete sequencing data), this sublineage accounted for approximately 6% of all sequences generated, on an increasing trajectory. This estimate may be imprecise ... Further assessment is underway,” it noted.

报告称：“这种从属关系目前越来越频繁。它包括刺突突变A222V和Y145H。在2021年9月27日开始的那一周（有完整测序数据的最新一周），该子序列约占所有序列生成的6%，呈上升趋势。这个估计可能不精确。进一步的评估正在进行中。”

Former U.S. Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb also tweeted about the subtype at the weekend.

美国食品和药物管理局前局长斯科特·戈特利布周末也在推特上提到了这种亚型。

“U.K. reported its biggest one-day Covid case increase in 3 months just as the new delta variant AY.4 with the S:Y145H mutation in the spike reaches 8% of UK sequenced cases,” Dr. Gottlieb wrote. “We need urgent research to figure out if this delta plus is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion?”

“英国报告了3个月来单日新增病例最多的情况，与此同时，带有S:Y145H突变的新型德尔塔变种AY.4在英国测序病例中达到8%，”戈特利布博士写道。“我们需要紧急研究，弄清楚这种德尔塔plus病毒是否更具传染性，是否存在部分免疫逃避？”

The delta subtype, known formally as AY.4.2, is reported to be 10-15% more transmissible than the standard delta variant, but it is too early to say for certain whether it has been causing a spike in cases in the U.K.

据报道，正式名称为AY.4.2的德尔塔亚型比标准的德尔塔变体的传染性高10-15%，但现在就确定它是否导致了英国病例的激增还为时过早。

Professor of immunology at Imperial College London, Danny Altmann, told CNBC on Monday that the subtype “needs to be monitored and, so far as possible, carefully controlled.”

伦敦帝国理工学院免疫学教授丹尼·奥尔特曼周一告诉CNBC，这种亚型“需要监测，并尽可能谨慎地加以控制。”
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“Because delta has now been the dominant mutant in several regions for some six months and not been displaced by any other variants, the hope has been that delta perhaps represented [the] peak mutation performance achievable by the virus. AY.4 may be starting to raise doubts about this assertion,” he warned.

他说：“由于德尔塔在几个地区已经成为主要的突变体有大约六个月了，而且没有被任何其他变体取代，人们希望德尔塔可能代表了这种病毒可以达到的突变性能峰值。而AY.4可能开始对这一断言提出了质疑，”他警告说。

The U.K. has often been seen as a harbinger of things to come for other countries during the pandemic, give the fact that the alpha variant was first discovered in Britain; it then became a dominant strain of the virus globally.

英国经常被视为疫情期间其他国家即将发生的事情的先兆，因为阿尔法变异最初就是在英国发现的；随后，它成为了该病毒在全球的主要毒株种类。

The same thing subsequently happened with the even more infectious delta variant, which was first found in India but then took hold in the U.K. before spreading around the world.

同样的事情也发生在更具传染性的德尔塔上，德尔塔最初在印度被发现，然后在英国扎了根，然后又传播到了世界各地。