印度在改变吗？

To be frank No.
The reason behind this is democracy.
First let me make it clear that India would never gonna beat China in living standard.
China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8,260 and that of India at USD 1,718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.

匿名用户（2017年回答）
坦率地说，没有在改变。
这背后的原因是印度的皿煮。
首先我想说明的是，印度在生活水平方面永远不会超过中国。
中国的GDP是11.4万亿美元（2016年IMF数据）。印度的GDP是2.25万亿美元（2016年IMF数据）。两者经济规模没有任何的可比性。中国的经济规模是印度的5倍以上。中国的人均GDP为8260美元（2016年），印度的人均GDP为1718美元，但中国的人口（13.7亿）和印度的人口（13.4亿）不相上下。按人均GDP计算的话，中国要比印度富裕五倍。

Based on these figures, India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly, if China grows by 6.3%, its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.
Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.
It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5%, and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out, it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.

根据这些数据，如果印度经济以7.5%的速度增长，其人均GDP也只将增加129美元。而如果中国以经济以6.3%的速度增长，其人均GDP会增加520美元。
那些说印度是世界上经济增长最快的国家的人，甚至没有对这种情况用小学数学进行计算一下。印度实际上需要超过30%的经济速度增长，才能在人均绝对值方面超过中国。
上述数字有助于了解人们对印度的期望是多么的错误。如果假设印度继续以7.5%的速度增长，而中国从现在开始以6.3%的速度增长，那么印度的人均增长将需要127年才能真正开始赶超中国。

The problem is that many people confuse “rate of growth” with actual “growth.” They blithely assume that a higher growth rate means greater growth. They assume that a decline in the growth rate is a decline in growth. Perhaps people simply see what they want to see as a result of their ideological preferences.

现在有个问题是，许多人把 "增长率 "和实际的 "增长 "混为一谈。他们轻率地认为，较高的增长率就意味着更大的增长。他们认为，增长率的下降就是增长的下降。也许人们只想看他们想看到的东西，这是他们的意识形态偏好的结果。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

In the early 1980s, India was richer on a per capita basis than China — India’s population was much smaller than China’s, but its GDP was of similar size.
If one pores over statements released by international institutions and media reports published over the past 36 years, it was consistently claimed that while India would be slow in getting to this point, it would eventually outpace China.
Not only did this not happen, but as demonstrated above, by now it looks as though it will be virtually impossible for India to outpace China. One should pause to reflect on why so many have been so consistently wrong about India.

在20世纪80年代初，按人均GDP计算的话，印度比中国更富有，那时印度的人口比中国少得多，但其国内生产总值的规模却差不多。
如果仔细研究国际机构发布的声明和媒体在过去36年里发表的报道，人们在一直说虽然印度在这一点上进展缓慢，但最终会超过中国。
但现在看来这不仅没有发生，而且如上所述的话，印度几乎不可能超越中国了。人们应该静下心来反思，为什么这么多人对印度的看法一直是错误的。

The Sacred Cow of Democracy

皿煮圣牛

One of the major reasons why the West, its institutions and the upper and middle classes prefer India over China is that India follows the western religion of democracy. They refuse to see that democracy tends not to work in poor countries (it is debatable whether it worked in the West).
One could well say that by the time democracy was introduced in the West, particularly in its present form in which everyone has the right to vote, the West had already reached its intellectual peak.

西方国家的机构和中上层阶级们喜欢印度而不喜欢中国的一个主要原因是，印度遵循西方的皿煮宗教制度。而他们又拒绝看到，西式皿煮在穷国往往并不能起作用（即使是在西方国家是否能起作用也值得商榷）。
人们完全可以说，当皿煮被引入西方时，特别是以目前这种人人都有投票权的形式，西方已经达到了它的思想高峰。

Non-western countries which have performed better in terms of economic growth and social indexes improved during time periods in which they were for all practical purposes not democratic. To name a few: Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, British and now Chinese Hong Kong, Park Chung-hee’s South Korea, Pinochet’s Chile, and Chiang’s Taiwan.
In India democracy never worked, but who need facts when emotions need to be satisfied? If Africa were a country, India would be worse off in terms of virtually every economic and social index on per capita basis. As a proportion of India’s population, the country’s people are among the world’s poorest, most diseased, wretched and malnourished.

在经济增长和社会指数方面表现较好的非西方国家，在它们实际上并不西方式皿煮的时期也有进步。仅举几例。李光耀的新加坡，英国和现在的中国香港，朴正熙的韩国，皮诺切特的智利，以及蒋式的中国台湾。
在印度，皿煮从来没有起过作用，但在需要满足情感的时候，谁需要事实呢？如果非洲是一个国家，印度在几乎所有的经济和社会指标方面的人均水平都还不如非洲。就印度人口的比例而言，该国人民是世界上最贫穷、疾病最多、最悲惨和最营养不良的国家之一了。

48% of Indians don’t even have access to toilets. Similar percentages of India’s population live without electricity, water and other basic amenities. To put this number into perspective again: at a per capita GDP of USD 1,718, India is poorer than Sudan, the Republic of Congo, Laos, Papua New Guinea and many other countries not exactly known for their great wealth.
It is often claimed that India has the largest English speaking population outside the western world. This was true in the past, but it is likely no longer true. China has brought in a large number of native speakers from Canada, the UK and the US to teach English to its students. It seems very likely that there are now more English speakers in China than there are in India – and they speak better English.

48%的印度人甚至都用不上厕所。印度人口中类似比例的人没有电、水和其他基本设施。再来看看这个数字：印度的人均GDP为1718美元，比苏丹、刚果共和国、老挝、巴布亚新几内亚和许多贫穷的国家还要穷。
人们常说，印度是西方世界以外讲英语人口最多的国家。这在过去是真的，但现在已经可能不再是真的了。中国已经从加拿大、英国和美国引进了大量以英语为母语的外教，向他们的学生教授英语。现在看来，中国讲英语的人很可能比印度人多，而且他们的英语说得更好。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

印度的人口增长和人口统计（含预测）

India certainly appears to be in an advantageous position in terms of demographics. While China’s society is aging and the number of young people is declining, more than 50% of Indians are below the age of 29. Alas, this is likely to turn into a liability, as the vast majority of them are unskilled and incapable of participating in the modern economy.
There is a net increase of 12 million Indians joining the workforce every year, but India continues to exhibit job-less growth. While their expectations are increasing — for they all watch American TV — they lack wealth-generating capabilities. As a result, crime is on the rise.

在人口方面，印度似乎正处于有利地位。中国社会正在老龄化，年轻人的数量正在减少，而超过50%的印度人年龄在29岁以下。唉，这反而很可能会变成一种负担，因为他们中的绝大多数人没有什么工作技能，根本没有能力参与现代经济建设。
每年有1200万印度人被添加进劳动力数据统计中，但印度失业率在持续增长。而他们还都在收看美国电视节目，这导致他们对生活期望值在增加，但他们又缺乏创造财富的能力。因此，犯罪率就一直呈上升趋势。

India’s institutions are often highlighted as the reason for the country’s superiority over China or other non-democratic systems. The reality is that in the last 70 years, Indians have systematically destroyed the institutions left by the British. Today’s judiciary, legislature and executive are not comparable.

印度的机构们经常被强调为该国比中国或其他非西式皿煮制度优越的原因。现实情况是，在过去的70年里，印度人系统地破坏了英国人留下的行政机构。今天的司法机构、立法机构和行政机构都无法与70年前相比。

Today none of these institutions are run for the benefit of the country’s citizens. They operate for the glorification of the State, in which citizens are mere cogs. These institutions have mutated on account of India’s underlying tribalism totalitarian tendencies.
Unless one is a criminal, one doesn’t visit a police station in India. The tyranny of the police, up to and including killing innocent people in fake encounters, has a long history. Court cases can drag on for decades. Regulations and laws are mere pieces of paper, with decisions sold to the largest bidder.

今天，这些机构的运作没有一个是为国家公民的利益考虑。它们的运作是为了美化整个国家，而公民只是其中的一个齿轮。由于印度潜在的部落主义和极权主义倾向，这些机构已经变味了。
在印度，除非你真正被定罪，否则你不会被逮捕。警察的暴政，包括在假的执法案件中杀害无辜者，这些情况由来已久。法院案件可以拖上几十年。条例和法律只是一纸空文，判决结果被出售给出价最大的人。

It is virtually impossible to get anything done in India without a bribe. Worse, people must grovel and humiliate themselves in front of public servants to get what is rightfully theirs.
Readers will do themselves a service by challenging themselves to find out whether democracy really has any connection with improved governance, stronger institutions of liberty, or faster economic growth.

在印度，不通过贿赂几乎不可能办成任何事。更糟糕的是，人们必须在政府雇员面前卑躬屈膝、自我贬低，才能得到本该属于他们的东西。
读者可以通过挑战自己来了解西式皿煮是否真的与改善治理、加强自由制度建设或加快经济增长有任何联系。

India’s Problems Have Deep Roots

深层次探讨印度的问题

India is an extremely irrational, superstitious, and tribal country. The concept of reason is mainly conspicuous by its absence in much of India. India was long associated with Britain and has imported western institutions, ways of living, technology, etc., over the last 200-300 years, but has failed to import the concept of reason.
The same could be said for Africa, the Middle East, rest of South Asia and most of South America. But we will stick with India here. Without the concept of reason, people can have no understanding of the rule of law, of fairness, or simply of what is right or wrong.
They can only think in terms of might is right, street-smartness and political connections. Such a society cannot have any understanding of the principles of the ten commandments, or have respect for the individual and liberty.

印度是一个极其不理性的、迷信的和部落化的国家。在印度的大部分地区，理性的概念主要是明显的缺失。印度长期以来与英国有息息相关，在过去的200-300年里，印度引进了西方的制度、生活方式、科学技术等，但却没有引进理性的概念。
非洲、中东、南亚其他地区和南美洲大部分地区也是如此。但我们在这里将坚持讨论印度。没有理性的概念，人们就无法理解法治、公平，或者简单地理解什么是正确或错误。他们只能从强权即正义、街头小聪明和政治关系的角度来思考。这样的社会不可能理解十条戒律的原则，也不可能尊重个人和自由。

Assimilating the concept of reason hasn’t happened in the last 200-300 years. In Europe it took about 2,000 years after it was discovered by Roman philosphers. Could it take another millennium or more before India’s society will be able to assimilate the concept of reason?
In the last three decades, India’s economy has grown, but most of this growth can be attributed to significantly improved access to the western world and its technology through the new medium of internet and cheap telephony. The low-hanging fruit from this have been plucked and India is starting to show signs of stagnation.

过去的200-300年里，吸收理性的概念在印度并没有发生。而在欧洲，从它被罗马哲学家发现后，也花费了大约2000年时间。那么印度的社会是否需要再过一千年或更长时间才能吸收理性的概念呢？
在过去的三十年里，印度的经济也有所增长，但其中大部分增长可以归功于通过互联网和廉价电话的新媒介大大改善了与西方世界及其技术的接触。这其中的低垂果实已经被采摘，印度已经开始出现停滞的迹象了。

While India grew economically, government grew at an even faster rate. People and corporations took on debt faster than they could repay it. They imported the lifestyle and a generous helping of consumerism from the West, mostly its entertainment aspects. Reason fell by the wayside.
All evidence indicates that Indians were actually disincentivized from developing critical thinking, creativity and reasoning skills. Why bother when one could become rich without them?

在印度经济增长的同时，印度的政府在以更快的速度增长。老百姓和企业举债的速度超过了他们的还款能力。他们从西方引进了生活方式和大量的消费主义，却主要是其娱乐方面。而理性却被抛在了一边。
所有证据表明，印度人实际上被剥夺了发展批判性思维、创造力和推理能力的积极性。如果没有这些能力就能发财致富，为什么还要多此一举呢？
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Indian manufacturing plants or offices, including those in the private sector are chaotic, wasteful and incapable of planning and following a system as a result. Labor costs appear cheap, but India’s chaos ensures low productivity.
Given a chance, Indian companies prefer to move their factories to China. Indian cities and villages are packed with Chinese good, even very basic ones.

印度的工厂或办公室，包括私企的工厂或办公室，都是混乱且浪费的，他们没有能力规划和遵循系统的结果。印度劳动力成本似乎很便宜，但印度的混乱完全降低了生产的效率。
如果有机会，印度公司宁愿把工厂搬到中国。印度的城市和乡村都挤满了中国的优质产品，甚至是最基本的生活用品。

What Will India’s Future be Like?

印度的未来会如何？

It shouldn’t be too difficult to abandon the idea that India will be the next China. India’s much-celebrated growth of 7.5% is too low to make any real impact on the world economy. But even this is under massive threat, once considers the country’s institutional and cultural problems.
As mentioned earlier, the low-hanging fruit from importing western technology have been plucked by now. India has failed to cultivate critical thinking and hence the ability to develop its own technology.
India has been a massive beneficiary of the fall in oil price, as oil is by far its biggest import. This was a one-off gain, a benefit for growth that will trail off again. Indian exports are already showing signs of strain and are falling, partly losing out to other countries which continue to improve their competitiveness, such as China and the Philippines.

放弃印度将成为下一个中国的想法。这应该不会太难。印度备受赞誉的7.5%的增长率实在是太低了，根本无法对世界经济产生任何真正的影响。但是，一旦考虑到该国的制度和文化问题，连这个增长率也受到了巨大威胁。
如前面所述，进口西方技术的低垂果实现在已经被摘掉了。印度没有培养出批判性思维，因此也没有培养出开发自己技术的能力。
印度是油价下跌的巨大受益者，因为到目前为止石油是其最大的进口产品。不过这是一个一次性的收益，最终将再次拖累经济增长。印度的出口已经显示出已经正在下降的迹象，某些方面的出口已经转让给了其他还在提高竞争力的国家，比如中国和菲律宾。

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处