UK and Ireland among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, study suggests
-Researchers say a worldwide breakdown could happen "within a few decades" and have identified five countries most likely to withstand future threats.

研究显示,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二
——研究人员称,一场全球性的崩溃可能在“几十年内”发生,并确定了五个最有可能抵御未来威胁的国家。


(The UK and Ireland were among five countries identified by researchers as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders)

(研究人员认为,英国和爱尔兰是五个在本国境内维持文明的最佳国家之二)
新闻:

The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

研究人员称,英国和爱尔兰是最有可能在全球文明崩溃中幸存下来的五个国家之二。

A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

一项研究表明,生态破坏、有限的资源和人口增长可能会在“几十年内”引发全球范围内的崩溃,而气候变化会使情况变得更糟。

A "very likely" collapse would be characterised by the disintegration of supply chains, international agreements and global financial structures, according to researchers at the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University.

安格利亚鲁斯金大学全球可持续发展研究所的研究人员表示,“很有可能的”崩溃的特征是供应链、国际协议和全球金融结构的瓦解。
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They said problems could spread quickly because of how connected and economically dependant countries are on one another.

他们表示,由于国家之间的联系和经济依赖,问题可能会迅速蔓延。

Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.

有五个国家被认为最适合在本国境内保持文明,新西兰名列榜首,冰岛、英国、爱尔兰和澳大利亚紧随其后。
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All of them are islands or island continents which have fewer extremes in temperatures and varied amounts of rainfall due to their proximity to oceans.

它们都是岛屿或岛屿型大陆,由于靠近海洋,极端温度较少,降雨量变化也不大。

Researchers said this makes them most likely to have relatively stable conditions in the future, despite the effects of climate change - which is expected to hit subtropics and tropics the hardest.

研究人员说,这使它们最有可能在未来拥有相对稳定的条件,尽管有气候变化的影响——预计亚热带和热带地区受到的冲击将最大。

New Zealand's ability to produce geothermal and hydroelectric energy, its abundant agricultural land and its low population would allow it to survive relatively unscathed.

新西兰生产地热和水力发电的能力、丰富的农业用地和低人口数量将使其相对无损地生存下来。
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Although the UK has generally fertile soils and varied agricultural output, it does not have as much agricultural land available because of its population density, raising questions about future self-sufficiency.

尽管英国土壤肥沃,农业产量多样,但由于人口密度大,农业用地并不多,这就给未来的自给自足带来了问题。
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Britain's reliance on fossil fuels and nuclear energy was considered to be a risk as power sources could be "rendered at least partly inoperable" if global supply chains collapse.

英国对化石燃料和核能的依赖被认为是一种风险,因为如果全球供应链崩溃,能源可能“至少部分无法使用”。

Researchers said this could be mitigated by the nation's manufacturing capabilities.

但研究人员表示,这个问题可能会被该国的制造能力所缓解。

Meeting the large population's energy demands through renewables alone would require very extensive infrastructure, they said, but the UK could increase its resilience by harnessing more energy from wind and water bodies like lagoons or barrages in the Severn Estuary.

他们说,仅通过可再生能源来满足大量人口的能源需求将需要非常广泛的基础设施,但英国可以通过从风和水体(比如塞汶河口的泻湖或堤坝)利用更多的能源来提高其韧性。

Professor Aled Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said "significant changes are possible in the coming years and decades".

安格利亚鲁斯金大学全球可持续发展研究所所长阿勒德·琼斯教授表示:“在未来几年乃至几十年,重大变化都有可能发生。”

He said: "The impact of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of drought and flooding, extreme temperatures, and greater population movement, could dictate the severity of these changes."

他说:“气候变化的影响,包括干旱和洪水的频率和强度的增加,极端气温,以及更大的人口流动,可能决定这些变化的严重性。”
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Researchers identified pandemics as another risk to societal stability, citing the United Nations' warning that future pandemics could be even more severe than COVID-19.

研究人员指出,大流行是社会稳定的另一个风险,并援引联合国的警告称,未来的大流行可能比新冠疫情更加严重。

Twenty countries were analysed in the report.

该报告共分析了20个国家。