UK scientists caution that lifting of Covid rules is like building ‘variant factories’
-Experts react with dismay to ‘frightening’ attitude of Sajid Javid towards removing protections

英国科学家警告称，取消防疫规定就好比建造“变种工厂”
——专家们对赛义德·贾维德关于取消防护措施的“令人恐惧”的态度感到震惊


(Sajid Javid : ‘We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly … No date we choose will ever come without risk.’)

（萨吉德·贾维德：“我们需要明白的是，病例将显著增加……我们选择的任何开放日期都会有风险。”）
新闻：

UK scientists have warned that the lifting of all Covid-19 restrictions is like building new “variant factories” at a very fast rate, and said the attitude of the new health and social care secretary, Sajid Javid, is “frightening”.

英国科学家警告称，取消所有防疫措施就像以非常快的速度建造新的“变种工厂”，并表示新任卫生和社会保障大臣赛义德·贾维德的态度“令人恐惧”。
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Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Javid said the best way to protect the nation’s health was by lifting the main Covid-19 restrictions. “Rules that we have had to put in place have caused a shocking rise in domestic violence and a terrible impact on so many people’s mental health,” he said.

贾维德在周日的《每日邮报》上写道，保护国民健康的最佳方式是取消主要防疫限制。他说：“我们不得不实施的法规导致了家庭暴力的急剧上升，对很多人的心理健康造成了可怕的影响。”

Reacting to the comments, Prof Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science, tweeted: “It is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who still thinks Covid is flu. Who is unconcerned at levels of infection. Who doesn’t realise that those who do best for health, also do best for the economy. Who wants to ditch all protections while only half of us are vaccinated.

圣安德鲁斯大学的斯蒂芬·雷谢尔教授是英国政府科学顾问小组行为科学咨询委员会的成员，他在推特上回应这些评论：“一个‘卫生’大臣仍然认为新冠肺炎不过只是流感，这令人恐惧。他不关心感染程度。他不知道那些为健康做得最好的人，也会为经济做得最好。他想在我们只有一半人接种疫苗的情况下就放弃所有保护措施。
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“Above all, it is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who wants to make all protections a matter of personal choice when the key message of the pandemic is “this isn’t an ‘I’ thing, it’s a ‘we’ thing.”

“最要命的是，当疫情的关键信息是“这不是‘我’的问题，而是‘我们’的问题”时，却有一个想要把所有保护措施都变成个人选择的‘卫生’大臣，这是令人恐惧的。”

On Monday, the cabinet is expected to sign off the easing of various Covid restrictions in England, including allowing fully vaccinated adults to travel to amber-list countries without having to self-isolate when they return; making the wearing of face masks voluntary, apart from in hospitals and other healthcare settings; and no longer requiring fully vaccinated adults to take a Covid-19 test or self-isolate or if they’ve come into contact with an infected person.

周一，英国内阁预计将批准放松对新冠肺炎的各种限制，包括允许完全接种疫苗的成年人前往黄色级别名单的国家旅行，且回国时无需自我隔离；除在医院和其他医疗机构外，可自愿佩戴口罩；不再要求完全接种过疫苗的成年人进行病毒检测或自我隔离，即使他们接触过感染者，也不再要求。
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The school “bubbles” system that has forced hundreds of thousands of pupils to self-isolate at home, if someone in their bubble tests positive, is also expected to be dropped; while pub and restaurant customers may no longer have to scan an NHS QR code upon their arrival.

如果有人在学生们的泡泡检测中呈阳性的话，就迫使成千上万的学生在家里自我隔离的学校的“泡泡”系统，预计也将被取消；而酒吧和餐厅的顾客可能再也不用在到达时扫描国家医疗体系的二维码了。

Javid said: “We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly. I know many people will be cautious about the easing of restrictions – that’s completely understandable. But no date we choose will ever come without risk, so we have to take a broad and balanced view.

贾维德说：“我们需要明确的是，病例将显著上升。我知道很多人会对放松限制持谨慎态度——这完全可以理解。但是，我们选择的任何日期都有风险，所以我们必须采取一个广泛和平衡的观点。

“We are going to have to learn to accept the existence of Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu.”

“我们必须学会接受新冠病毒的存在，并找到应对它的方法——就像我们对付流感一样。”

Prof Susan Michie, the director of the Centre for Behaviour Change at University College London, and another member of Sage’s behavioural science subcommittee, tweeted: “Allowing community transmission to surge is like building new ‘variant factories’ at a very fast rate.”

伦敦大学学院行为变化中心主任、英国政府科学顾问小组行为科学小组委员会的另一名成员苏珊·米基教授在推特上写道：“允许社区传播激增，就像以非常快的速度建造新的‘变种工厂’。”

Writing in a blog for the British Medical Journal last week, Michie, together with Reicher and Prof Ann Phoenix at UCL’s Institute of Education, said Javid’s singular emphasis on the responsibility of individuals to identify and mitigate against Covid-19 risks, took the emphasis away from what the government must also do.

上周，米基和赖歇尔以及伦敦大学学院教育学院的安·菲尼克斯教授在为《英国医学杂志》撰写的一篇博客中写道，贾维德强调个人有责任识别和减轻新冠风险，把重点从政府必须做的事情上转移开。

“If people are to act responsibly they need their government to fulfil its own responsibilities to make safe behaviour possible,” they said. “The fear is that when government talks about a “freedom day” when all restrictions are lifted, it doesn’t mean that the virus has gone away, and it doesn’t mean that measures are not needed to prevent a resurgence.

他们说：“如果人们要采取负责任的行动，他们就需要政府履行自己的责任，让安全行为成为可能。令人担忧的是，当政府谈到所有限制被取消的‘自由日’时，并不意味着病毒已经消失，也不意味着不需要采取措施防止病毒再次爆发。

“What it does mean is that the government is planning to withdraw all forms of support and abandon us to deal with the pandemic on our own.”

“这意味着政府计划撤回所有形式的防疫支持，抛弃了我们，让我们自己去应对这种大流行。”

However, other scientists said the relaxation of many of the restrictions, while not risk-free, made sense. Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “Double-vaccinated people are less likely to get an infection and even if infected are less likely to infect others.”

然而，其他科学家表示，尽管放宽许多限制并非没有风险，但也是有道理的。东安格利亚大学的医学教授保罗·亨特说：“接种过两次疫苗的人不太可能感染，即使被感染了也不太可能传染给其他人。”

Similarly, he said the additional risk posed by relaxing mask-wearing was unlikely to be great – although it made sense for vulnerable groups to wear them in crowded indoor environments, and for those visiting very vulnerable individual indoors – at least while community rates remained high.

同样，他说，放松佩戴口罩带来的额外风险不大可能很大——尽管在拥挤的室内环境中戴口罩对弱势群体有意义，对那些在室内拜访弱势群体的人也有意义——至少在社区覆盖率仍然很高的情况下是这样。

“The school bubble system may have had some value, but if we accept that we are all going to get repeated Sars-CoV-2 infections throughout life, and we are unlikely to vaccinate children under 11, and may not vaccinate children from 11 to 16, then all this can be said to be doing is delaying the inevitable. This is causing considerable disruption for relatively little benefit,” Hunter said. “Even relying on daily testing of asymptomatic individuals is open to debate.

亨特说：“学校的泡泡系统可能有一些价值，但如果我们接受我们都会在一生中反复感染新冠，并且我们不太可能给11岁以下的儿童接种疫苗，也不太可能给11岁至16岁的儿童接种疫苗，的话，那么，所有这些措施都可以说只是在拖延不可避免的结果而已。这造成了相当大的破坏，而收益却相对较少。甚至依赖无症状个体的日常检测也存在争议。

“Of course, we have seen new issues appear during the course of this epidemic and so no one can be certain of the challenges over coming months, but we will eventually come into an equilibrium with this virus as we have with all the other endemic respiratory infections.”

“当然，我们看到在疫情期间出现了新的问题，所以没有人能确定未来几个月将面临哪些挑战，但我们最终将与这种病毒达成平衡，就像我们与所有其他地方性呼吸道感染达成了平衡一样。”

Prof Allyson Pollock, clinical professor of public health at Newcastle University, said Javid’s approach was “sensible”. She said: “Population immunity is rapidly being achieved due to a combination of naturally acquired immunity through infection and vaccination. Unknowns are duration of immunity, impact of variants and who is at individual risk of reinfection or transmission.

纽卡斯尔大学公共卫生临床教授阿廖森·波洛克表示，贾维德的做法是“明智的”。她说：“由于通过感染和接种疫苗产生的自然获得性免疫的结合，人群免疫力正在迅速获得。未知因素包括免疫持续时间、变种的影响以及谁有再次感染或传播的个人风险。

“Good infection and outbreak control measures are still important at local level. However, mass testing and daily testing should be stopped, as testing of asymptomatic people is causing unnecessary harms with no evidence that it contributes to reducing transmission.”

“良好的感染和疫情控制措施在地方层面仍然很重要。但是，应该停止大规模检测和日常检测，因为对无症状人群的检测正在造成不必要的危害，没有证据表明这么做能有助于减少传播。”

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