Third wave of Covid may be under way in UK, scientists say
-With new infections at level last seen in March, experts have cautioned against lifting restrictions too soon

科学家称,英国第三波疫情可能正在路上
——着新感染病例回到3月份的水平,专家警告不要过早解除限制


(A Covid-19 sign on the high street in Hounslow, west London.)

(伦敦西部豪恩斯洛大街上的抗疫宣传)
新闻:



Downing Street insisted it was too soon for speculation about whether the plan to lift all lockdown rules in England on 21 June could go ahead, prompting calls from the hospitality industry for the government to ensure it provided “advance notice” for struggling businesses of any “lingering” measures.

唐宁街坚称,现在猜测6月21日取消英国所有封锁规定的计划是否会继续实施还为时过早,这促使酒店业呼吁政府确保要向陷入困境的企业提供任何“拖延”措施的“预先通知”。




Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Zahawi refused to rule out that the planned unlocking could be tweaked, adding that an announcement will be made on 14 June. “We have to look at the data and we will share that with the country,” he said. “It would be completely wrong for me to now speculate. There are many people watching your programme, in jobs and businesses, who want to basically follow the exact direction the government is giving them whilst taking personal responsibility.

扎哈维在BBC的安德鲁·马尔节目中表示,他不排除计划中的解封可能会有所调整的可能性,并补充说将于6月14日正式宣布。他说:“我们必须研究这些数据,我们将与全国分享这些数据。如果我现在去猜测,那将是完全错误的。有很多人在看你的节目,在工作和商业中,他们想要遵循政府给他们的方向,同时承担个人责任。

“At the moment, we don’t have enough data. There are some parts of the country where there’s literally no B.1.617.2 and everything is pretty stable; in other parts of the country it is beginning to overtake the B.1.1.7 variant – the Kent variant.”

“目前,我们没有足够的数据。这个国家的一些地方没有出现B.1.617.2的新变种,并且一切都很稳定;而在英国的其他地方,它开始超过B.1.1.7型变种——肯特型。”


Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he believed the third wave had begun.

伦敦卫生与热带医学学院欧洲公共卫生教授马丁·麦基表示,他认为第三波疫情已经开始了。

“We can already see that the current measures are not stopping cases rising rapidly in many parts of the country. This looks very much as if we are now early in a third wave,” he said. “Unless there is a miracle, opening up further in June is a huge risk. The rise in cases we are seeing now should cause a reassessment of the most recent relaxation.”

“我们已经可以看到,目前的措施并不能阻止该国许多地区的病例迅速上升。这看起来很像是我们正处于第三波浪潮的早期。除非出现奇迹,否则在6月进一步开放是一个巨大的风险。我们现在看到的病例增多,应该让我们重新评估即将开始的放松。”

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he was concerned the UK was seeing the early signs of a third wave earlier this month, as it became clear the India variant was spreading in the community.

东安格利亚大学医学教授保罗·亨特表示,他担心英国在本月早些时候看到了第三次疫情爆发的早期迹象,因为有迹象表明印度变异病毒正在社区中传播。

Prof Ravi Gupta of the University of Cambridge, a co-opted member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), also raised concerns. “If things go as I think they are going to go, we will likely end up with a third wave. It will be a big wave of infections and there will be deaths and severe illness,” he said.

剑桥大学的拉维·古普塔教授是新出现呼吸道病毒威胁咨询小组的增选成员,他也提出了担忧。“如果事情像我认为的那样发展,我们可能会迎来第三波疫情。这将是一场感染的大潮,将出现死亡和严重疾病,”他说。

“It will put pressure on the NHS at a time when we are trying to get back to normal and it is going to require a redoubling of efforts from the government to step up vaccination and to look at boosting of waning [immune] responses.”

“如果我们努力恢复正常,这将给国家医疗体系带来压力,需要加倍努力来加强疫苗接种,并研究如何提高(免疫)应答。”

Gupta said he was in favour of delaying the planned 21 June relaxation in England until the summer holidays, when the chance of spread within educational settings is reduced.

古普塔说,他赞成把原定于6月21日在英国的封锁放松计划推迟到暑假,那时在教育环境中传播的机会会减少。

A substantial rise in coronavirus patients would hit the NHS just as staff are facing lengthy waiting lists for delayed procedures. Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, said staff were “going full pelt” to deal with the backlog and did not have the space for a significant increase in coronavirus admissions.

新冠肺炎患者的大幅增加将对国家医疗体系造成冲击,而与此同时,国家医疗体系工作人员正面临漫长的等待程序。国家医疗体系服务提供商首席执行官克里斯·霍普森表示,工作人员正在“全力以赴”处理积压的病人,没有空间容纳新冠感染病例的显著增加。

“While it’s great news that the vaccinations are working – and I think that sends us one message in terms of opening up on 21 June – what we mustn’t forget is there are still lots of people who need to be vaccinated, and we know this variant that originated in India is much more transmissible,” Hopson told BBC Breakfast.

“虽然疫苗正在起作用是个好消息——并且我认为这向我们传达了6月21日解封的信息——我们不能忘记的是,仍然有很多人需要接种疫苗,我们知道这种起源于印度的变种更具传染性,”霍普森告诉BBC早间新闻。

Dr William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard, said the UK’s current approach was not enough to prevent a third wave of infections. “The only question is how consequential it will be in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and when exactly it happens,” he said. “A full reopening in June is not compatible with controlling the virus.”

哈佛大学传染病进化和流行病学教授威廉·哈纳奇博士表示,英国目前的方法不足以防止第三波疫情。他说:“唯一的问题是,它对住院和死亡的影响有多大,以及它到底什么时候发生。6月全面重开与控制疫情是不相容的。”