Third wave of Covid may be under way in UK, scientists say
-With new infections at level last seen in March, experts have cautioned against lifting restrictions too soon

科学家称，英国第三波疫情可能正在路上
——着新感染病例回到3月份的水平，专家警告不要过早解除限制


(A Covid-19 sign on the high street in Hounslow, west London.)

（伦敦西部豪恩斯洛大街上的抗疫宣传）
新闻：

Scientists have warned ministers that a third wave of coronavirus may have already begun in Britain, casting doubt on plans in England to lift all lockdown restrictions in three weeks’ time.

科学家警告大臣们，英国可能已经开始出现第三疫情，这让人们对英国在三周内取消所有封锁限制的计划产生了质疑。

Experts cautioned that any rise in coronavirus hospital admissions could leave the NHS struggling to cope as it battles to clear the huge backlog in non-Covid cases.

专家警告称，新冠肺炎住院人数的任何上升都可能让英国国家医疗体系难以应对，因为国家医疗体系正在努力清理大量前期积压的非新冠肺炎病人。
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Downing Street insisted it was too soon for speculation about whether the plan to lift all lockdown rules in England on 21 June could go ahead, prompting calls from the hospitality industry for the government to ensure it provided “advance notice” for struggling businesses of any “lingering” measures.

唐宁街坚称，现在猜测6月21日取消英国所有封锁规定的计划是否会继续实施还为时过早，这促使酒店业呼吁政府确保要向陷入困境的企业提供任何“拖延”措施的“预先通知”。
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The vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi, refused to deny that some restrictions such as mask wearing and working from home might remain in place to reduce the spread of the virus. Senior scientific advisers believe that, where possible, working from home makes sense beyond June because it would cut the number of people who come into contact with each other.

疫苗大臣纳迪姆·扎哈维拒绝否认为了减少病毒的传播，可能会继续采取一些限制措施，比如戴口罩和在家工作。高级科学顾问认为，在可能的情况下，6月之后在家工作是有意义的，因为这将减少人与人之间的接触。

Ministers are grappling with whether a rise in cases and further spread of the Covid variant first discovered in India could throw Boris Johnson’s roadmap off track. Despite the progress of the vaccination programme, advisers are unsure to what extent the new infections – which are at levels last seen at the end of March – will translate into hospitalisations and deaths.

大臣们正在努力应对首次在印度发现的新型冠状病毒病例的增加和进一步传播是否会使鲍里斯·约翰逊的抗疫路线图偏离轨道。尽管疫苗接种计划取得了进展，但顾问们不确定新感染（3月底出现的水平）将在多大程度上转化为住院和死亡。

Outbreak modellers advising Sage expected a resurgence of infections even before the new variant, called B.1.617.2, was found in the UK. That is because, as restrictions ease, the virus can spread more easily among millions of people who have not been protected by vaccines. Research by Public Health England that suggests the new variant is highly transmissible and partially resistant to vaccines has heightened concerns that a third wave could overwhelm the NHS.

疾病爆发建模师高速英国政府科学顾问小组，即使在名为B.1.617.2的新变种在英国被发现之前，就预计感染会卷土重来了。这是因为，随着限制的放宽，病毒可以更容易地在数百万没有得到疫苗保护的人群中传播。英国公共卫生部门的研究表明，这种新变种具有高度传染性，而且对疫苗具有部分抗药性，这加剧了人们对第三波疫情可能淹没英国国家医疗服务体系的担忧。

Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Zahawi refused to rule out that the planned unlocking could be tweaked, adding that an announcement will be made on 14 June. “We have to look at the data and we will share that with the country,” he said. “It would be completely wrong for me to now speculate. There are many people watching your programme, in jobs and businesses, who want to basically follow the exact direction the government is giving them whilst taking personal responsibility.

扎哈维在BBC的安德鲁·马尔节目中表示，他不排除计划中的解封可能会有所调整的可能性，并补充说将于6月14日正式宣布。他说：“我们必须研究这些数据，我们将与全国分享这些数据。如果我现在去猜测，那将是完全错误的。有很多人在看你的节目，在工作和商业中，他们想要遵循政府给他们的方向，同时承担个人责任。

“At the moment, we don’t have enough data. There are some parts of the country where there’s literally no B.1.617.2 and everything is pretty stable; in other parts of the country it is beginning to overtake the B.1.1.7 variant – the Kent variant.”

“目前，我们没有足够的数据。这个国家的一些地方没有出现B.1.617.2的新变种，并且一切都很稳定；而在英国的其他地方，它开始超过B.1.1.7型变种——肯特型。”

The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was similarly cautious, telling the Mail on Sunday: “We will know more as we approach the date.” The India variant is thought to be driving a rise in cases in parts of the UK and there are signs of a slight rise in hospitalisations. Up to three-quarters of new Covid cases in the UK are thought to be caused by the variant.

财政大臣里希·苏纳克也同样谨慎，他周日对《每日邮报》表示：“随着（解封）日期的临近，我们将了解更多信息。”印度变种被认为是导致英国部分地区病例增加的原因，有迹象表明住院治疗的人数略有上升。在英国，多达四分之三的新增病例被认为是由这种变异病毒引起的。

Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he believed the third wave had begun.

伦敦卫生与热带医学学院欧洲公共卫生教授马丁·麦基表示，他认为第三波疫情已经开始了。

“We can already see that the current measures are not stopping cases rising rapidly in many parts of the country. This looks very much as if we are now early in a third wave,” he said. “Unless there is a miracle, opening up further in June is a huge risk. The rise in cases we are seeing now should cause a reassessment of the most recent relaxation.”

“我们已经可以看到，目前的措施并不能阻止该国许多地区的病例迅速上升。这看起来很像是我们正处于第三波浪潮的早期。除非出现奇迹，否则在6月进一步开放是一个巨大的风险。我们现在看到的病例增多，应该让我们重新评估即将开始的放松。”

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he was concerned the UK was seeing the early signs of a third wave earlier this month, as it became clear the India variant was spreading in the community.

东安格利亚大学医学教授保罗·亨特表示，他担心英国在本月早些时候看到了第三次疫情爆发的早期迹象，因为有迹象表明印度变异病毒正在社区中传播。

Prof Ravi Gupta of the University of Cambridge, a co-opted member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), also raised concerns. “If things go as I think they are going to go, we will likely end up with a third wave. It will be a big wave of infections and there will be deaths and severe illness,” he said.

剑桥大学的拉维·古普塔教授是新出现呼吸道病毒威胁咨询小组的增选成员，他也提出了担忧。“如果事情像我认为的那样发展，我们可能会迎来第三波疫情。这将是一场感染的大潮，将出现死亡和严重疾病，”他说。

“It will put pressure on the NHS at a time when we are trying to get back to normal and it is going to require a redoubling of efforts from the government to step up vaccination and to look at boosting of waning [immune] responses.”

“如果我们努力恢复正常，这将给国家医疗体系带来压力，需要加倍努力来加强疫苗接种，并研究如何提高（免疫）应答。”

Gupta said he was in favour of delaying the planned 21 June relaxation in England until the summer holidays, when the chance of spread within educational settings is reduced.

古普塔说，他赞成把原定于6月21日在英国的封锁放松计划推迟到暑假，那时在教育环境中传播的机会会减少。

A substantial rise in coronavirus patients would hit the NHS just as staff are facing lengthy waiting lists for delayed procedures. Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, said staff were “going full pelt” to deal with the backlog and did not have the space for a significant increase in coronavirus admissions.

新冠肺炎患者的大幅增加将对国家医疗体系造成冲击，而与此同时，国家医疗体系工作人员正面临漫长的等待程序。国家医疗体系服务提供商首席执行官克里斯·霍普森表示，工作人员正在“全力以赴”处理积压的病人，没有空间容纳新冠感染病例的显著增加。

“While it’s great news that the vaccinations are working – and I think that sends us one message in terms of opening up on 21 June – what we mustn’t forget is there are still lots of people who need to be vaccinated, and we know this variant that originated in India is much more transmissible,” Hopson told BBC Breakfast.

“虽然疫苗正在起作用是个好消息——并且我认为这向我们传达了6月21日解封的信息——我们不能忘记的是，仍然有很多人需要接种疫苗，我们知道这种起源于印度的变种更具传染性，”霍普森告诉BBC早间新闻。

Dr William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard, said the UK’s current approach was not enough to prevent a third wave of infections. “The only question is how consequential it will be in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and when exactly it happens,” he said. “A full reopening in June is not compatible with controlling the virus.”

哈佛大学传染病进化和流行病学教授威廉·哈纳奇博士表示，英国目前的方法不足以防止第三波疫情。他说：“唯一的问题是，它对住院和死亡的影响有多大，以及它到底什么时候发生。6月全面重开与控制疫情是不相容的。”

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