Over the past few days, India’s defence budget has come under the spotlight all over again. Former Army chief Gen V.P. Malik (retd), in ThePrint’s Off The Cuff programme, said that India is not spending much on defence. With China’s defence budget nearly four times that of India, Malik argued that India’s defence budget should be at least 3 per cent of the GDP.

在过去的几天里,印度的国防预算再次成为人们关注的焦点。前陆军总参谋长马利克(已退役)在《独立报》的Cuff计划中说,印度在国防上的开支不多。中国的国防预算是印度的近4倍,马里克认为,印度的国防预算至少应该达到GDP的3%。

Although the capital budget for the armed forces saw a significant 19 per cent jump in the Budget 2021 presented last month, the increase in the overall allocation was only 1.5 per cent, with the total defence budget now amounting to 2.14 per cent of the GDP.

尽管在上月公布的2021年预算中,军队的资本预算大幅增长了19%,但总拨款的增长仅为1.5%,目前国防预算总额占GDP的2.14%。

More startling, however, are the figures submitted by the Defence Ministry in Parliament, because they brought out a growing disparity between the amount allocated by the Centre and the amount sought by the armed forces for modernisation purposes. The Narendra Modi government’s capital budget allocation for 2021-22 is lower than what the armed forces had asked for seven years ago in 2014-15.

然而,国防部向议会提交的数字更令人吃惊,因为这些数字显示出:中央政府分配的资金与军队为实现现代化而索取的资金之间的差距越来越大。莫迪政府2021-22年的资本预算拨款数字,比印度军方7年前的2014-15年所要求的数字还低。

Widening budget deficit

不断扩大的预算赤字

One might feel for the armed forces but the fact is that the money pool is limited. India has to cater to multiple demands — social, economic, infrastructural, and agricultural among others. Moreover, every armed force in the world will want to have the best, even if it may not fit their bill.

人们可能会同情军队,但事实是,资金池是有限的。印度必须满足多种需求——社会、经济、基础设施和农业等。此外,世界上的每一支武装力量都想拥有最好的东西,即使他们没钱买。

The demand of the armed forces will always be high. But can the budget accommodate it?

军队的要求总是很高。但是我们的预算能适应它吗?

Take for instance the existing defence budget deficit. The Navy had projected a requirement of Rs 70,920.78 crore under the capital budget. What it got was not even half — Rs 33,253.55 crore. Similarly, the Army had sought Rs 51,492 crore for its modernisation budget, but got only Rs 36,531 crore. And the Air Force’s Rs 77,140 crore projection fetched only Rs 53,214.77, majority of which will go towards payment for the recently ordered Tejas and Rafale aircraft.

以现有的国防预算赤字为例。根据资本预算,海军申请了7092.078亿卢比。而它获批的金额还不到一半——3325.355亿卢比。同样,印度陆军原本要求5149.2亿卢比作为现代化预算,但只得到了3653.1亿卢比。空军要求的7714亿卢比的预算,仅得到了5321.477亿卢比,其中大部分将用于支付最近订购的光辉战机和阵风战机。

This comes in the backdrop of India burdened by its worst tension with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in decades.

而这一局面正值印度与中国在实控线上的关系处于几十年来最紧张的时刻。

What adds to the alarm is that, according to PRS India Legislative Research, the armed forces’ committed liabilities in 2016-17 was Rs 73,553 crore against which the budget allocation was just Rs 62,619 crore — a shortfall of 15 per cent. This drastic shortfall increased to 29 per cent in 2019-20 — when the allocation was Rs 80,959 crore against the committed liabilities of Rs 1,13, 667 crore.

让这一警报更加紧张的是,根据PRS印度立法研究的消息,印度军队2016-17年的承诺债务是7355.3亿卢比,而预算分配只有6261.9亿卢比——存在15%的缺口。而且这个严重的缺口在2019-20年度增加到29%,当时的承诺债务是11366.7亿卢比,而只分配了8095.9亿卢比。

Yes, under the Modi government, there has been an increased push for defence modernisation and contracts have been signed at a faster pace than the UPA era. But it is important to keep in mind that spending more is not the answer — spending right is.

是的,在莫迪政府的领导下,印度加大了国防现代化的力度,签署合同的速度比国大党时代快。但重要的是要记住,花更多的钱并不是解决问题的办法——正确地花钱才是。

And that’s why India can look at Armenia and Azerbaijan, which recently went to war against each other, to learn how to spend smartly.

:这就是为什么印度可以看看亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆——这两个国家最近在打仗——印度应该从中学习如何明智地花钱。

Lessons on smart spending

明智开支的教训

As per the figures of Swedish think tank Stockholm International and Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2009 and 2018, Azerbaijan spent about $24 billion on defence. On the other hand, Armenia spent a little more than $4 billion during the same period. However, in terms of the share of government spending, Armenia spends much more.

根据瑞典智库斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据,2009年至2018年,阿塞拜疆的国防开支约为240亿美元。另一方面,亚美尼亚在同一时期花费了40多亿美元。然而,就政府支出份额而言,亚美尼亚的支出要高得多。

In 2018, in terms of government spending, Armenia spent 21 per cent towards the military even as one-fourth of its population lives in poverty. Azerbaijan, supported by its oil revenue, spent about 11 per cent.

2018年,在政府支出方面,亚美尼亚的军费支出为21%,而该国四分之一的人口生活在贫困之中。但是在石油收入的支持下,阿塞拜疆的支出约为11%。

Another smart thing that Azerbaijan did was diversify, not just in terms of equipment but also source. Armenia focused on buying the big toys from Russia, which also supplies to Azerbaijan. But then, Azerbaijan was intelligent enough to diversify its procurement and depended on Turkey and an odd vendor – Israel.

阿塞拜疆的另一个聪明的做法是多样化,不仅在装备方面,也在来源方面。而亚美尼亚专注于从俄罗斯购买大型装备,俄罗斯也向阿塞拜疆供应这些装备。但后来,阿塞拜疆明智地将其采购多样化,并依赖于土耳其和一个奇怪的供应商——以色列。

According to the Institute of War and Peace Reporting, “Israel was Azerbaijan’s first largest military trading partner in arms imports in 2015-2019. Its share of Azerbaijan’s arms imports during that period was 60 per cent, with Russia providing 31 per cent and Turkey 3.2 per cent. The remaining 5.8 per cent was divided between Ukraine, Belarus, Pakistan and China.”

根据战争与和平报告研究所的报告,“2015-2019年,以色列是阿塞拜疆武器进口的第一大军事贸易伙伴。在此期间,它在阿塞拜疆的武器进口份额中占了60%,俄罗斯占31%,土耳其占3.2%。剩余的5.8%由乌克兰、白俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和中国瓜分。”

This meant that Azerbaijan diversified and it was the use of weapons such as Turkey’s weaponised drone Bayraktar TB2 and the Israeli Heron-TP drone that really swung the war in its favour.

这意味着阿塞拜疆采取了多样化策略,它使用的武器,如土耳其的武器无人机Bayraktar TB2和以色列的Heron-TP无人机,真正让那场战争转向对它有利的方向。

The IWPR added, “The Azerbaijani government prefers current political allies when choosing partners for military trade. Thus Russia was its main partner in 2010-2015, Israel in 2015-2019, and Turkey in 2020.”

IWPR补充说:“阿塞拜疆政府在选择军事贸易伙伴时更倾向于当前的政治盟友。因此,俄罗斯是2010-2015年的主要合作伙伴,以色列是2015-2019年的主要合作伙伴,土耳其是2020年的主要合作伙伴。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


What is notable is that at one point of time, Armenia held the military edge over Azerbaijan. Back in 2010, Armenia’s first deputy defence minister David Tonoyan had said the country was “seeking a more efficient military at a relatively low cost in response to Azerbaijan’s growing military spending”. This even as in 2008, it was very clear that Azerbaijan wanted to build “a strong army to regain the contentious Nagorno-Karabakh either by improving its negotiating leverage with Armenia or going back to war”.

值得注意的是,亚美尼亚曾一度拥有对阿塞拜疆的军事优势。早在2010年,亚美尼亚第一副国防部长David Tonoyan就曾表示,该国“正在寻求以相对较低的成本建立一支更高效的军队,以应对阿塞拜疆不断增长的军事开支”。即使是在2008年,很明显,阿塞拜疆想要建立“一支强大的军队来重新夺回有争议的纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫地区,或者通过改善与亚美尼亚的谈判筹码,或者通过重新开战的方式”。

The message on the wall is very clear. It is not about spending big, but spending smart within what your pocket allows.

所以其中的经验是显而易见的。不是要大手大脚的花钱,而是在荷包允许的情况下明智的花钱。