【下】如果1941年希特勒没有入侵苏联，而是继续执行《海狮行动》并入侵英国，将会是什么结局？英国能否挺住？美国会协同守护英国吗？

Bob Reisner
If the German decision was made in 1941 to invade Britain and the expectation was an invasion in 1941 and that the invasion would be successful and complete in 1941, then it would have gone badly for Germany. For all the reasons others have stated.
When we look at German war history from the mid 1930''s through the beginning of the Russian invasion, the German expectation was for a quick war...over in the same year as it started.
Contrast this with the actions of the USA post Pearl Harbor. The expectation was for a long war that would require a full mobilization of the people and the economy. A resolution as soon as 1945 was only the dream of a few.
I''d suggest that even if staged at a different time, ''Sea Lion'' was not the best approach. A direct assault across the shortest channel crossing point would have given Britain advantages in logistical support for their defense. A very 10th-century solution. German success would not be assured. Without the distraction of a Russian front or a war with the USA, Germany would have a greater chance of success. But it would be a WW1 style frontal slugfest. And because Sea Lion would start with a smallish beachhead, there would be little room for mechanized maneuver. A war of attrition over a long period of time is expensive and allows for some uncertainty in outcome. The cost of Sea Lion, even at a later time, might have been too expensive.
I do think the Germans had other alternatives than Sea Lion to successfully conquer Britain. And alternatives with a greater probability of success. One example follows:
Suppose that from 1940 on, the Germans planned and executed a ''long war'' to conquer Britain. Some of the elements of the German long war would be:
Use of submarines, surface ships, long and medium range bombers to sink all in and outbound shipping. Whether in port or on the high seas perhaps a 200 mile limit from British borders, the program would be to sink everything to and from Britain.
Use air forces to degrade radar and air defense including fighters.
Use air forces to degrade rail transport, power generation, water distribution and sewage treatment.
Use air forces to defoliate and otherwise destroy crops and livestock.
Use air forces to destroy mining, factories and distribution structures.
Some of the more surprising elements of this effort would include:
No direct attacks on the general population. Only as ''unfortunate'' collateral damage.
Avoidance of actions that ''force'' USA entry into the war.
A strong, public and forceful offer to the United States to assist them in their war against the Japanese. Perhaps a half million troops to the Philippines in 1942. To understand how powerful this might have been you need only to look up USA German Bund activity in the late 1930''s.
For Russia, the Germans could offer Iran after the conquest of Britain. In return for honoring an existing agreement, Russia would get the dream of all the Czars...a warm water port. I believe this offer would have been welcomed (just like the deal to split Poland a couple of years earlier.
A strong propaganda program to the British people. Elements would include such promises as a Vichy-type occupation, Scottish ''independence'', general military amnesty, etc. The appearance of the war being against a British government and only reluctantly against the British people.
Bottom line...Germany could manufacture bombers and munitions way faster than the rest of the world (x/USA) could manufacture ships. With a strong program beginning in 1941, I''d expect a seriously weakened Britain by the beginning of 1943.
Based on the WW2 German and Japanese homeland experience, we could expect that after 2 years of relentless bombing that the civil and military society of Britain would be severely degraded. Two years with declining to very limited food stocks, limited power and heat, and disrupted/reduced military capability.
At this point, the German propaganda machine should continuously let the British people know that ''unfortunately'' the invasion of Great Britain must begin and that it regrets the increase in civilian casualties. Announce the start and continue to request a ''peaceful'' solution.
By 1943, in the circumstances I''ve described, British air defense would be non existent and Germany would ''own'' the British skies.
First, Germany needs to make Ireland an offer they can''t refuse. Ireland lets Germany stage an assault on Northern Ireland from Irish soil. In return, Ireland gets Northern Ireland at war''s end. Again, assuming German control of air space and close in British waters, Northern Ireland becomes a killing field for the Germans to easily extinguish British troops. The British lose troops in Northern Ireland, on the water to Northern Ireland and in the staging areas in Britain. The German goal is to chew up ''irreplaceable'' British human and material resources. Britain will exact a price and will have some tactical success but the outcome is certain...eventual loss of Northern Ireland, soldiers, and munitions. It might take a year...all of 1943.
With the loss of Ireland, Scotland is exposed. By 1944, Britain is in its 3rd year of siege and even weaker. And Scotland is invaded. German air based in Ireland is closer to the front than any residual British air. More importantly, Ireland based German air assets are just a few air miles from the English/Scottish border which is a natural choke point for air interdiction of English reinforcements/material being sent north. And if the Germans treated the Irish well, the Scottish might also be interested in ''self government'' (Vichy style). And with Germany just across the Channel and Irish Sea, Britain could NOT send all of it''s resources north to fight the Scottish invasion.
With Scotland falling in 1944, the exhausted British would have no choice but to surrender in 1945.
For Germany, the slow deliberate and ''friendly'' approach would be very efficient in terms of German lives and money. In the face of a long war and without USA or Russian intervention, I just don''t see how Britain could have survived.
Fortunately for us, the very capable German/Prussian General Staff was led by an emotional, inexperienced and untrained ex-corporal. Just imagine the outcome if the German leader had the capability of Otto von Bismarck!

如果德国决定1941年入侵英国并取得胜利，那对于德国而言，最终结果将是非常糟糕的。原因如下：
如果我们回顾德国的战争史——从1930年代中期到沙俄入侵，德国所期待的，都是一种速战速决的战争模式，它希望在发动战争的同一年内就结束战争。
这和美国在珍珠港事件后的战争行动形成了鲜明的对比。美国期待的是一场需要充分动员人民和经济的长期战争，而在1945年速战速决只是少数人的梦想罢了。
在我看来，无论“海狮行动”在任何阶段执行，都不是最好的解决方案。如果纳粹德国通过海峡在最短距离攻击英国，这只会让英国可以向防御部队提供后勤支持，从而建立英国的优势。这简直和10世纪的落后作战方法无异。德国根本就无法保证战争的胜利。如果没有和苏联战线和美国分散自己的注意力，德国有很大的成功机会，但是，战争方式会变成一战时的前线正面交锋而已。由于“海狮行动”将会从狭窄的海滩地区展开，供机械化机动的空间非常小。长时间的消耗会增加战争的代价并造成结果的不稳定。即便是在后期发动“海狮行动”，代价仍然过高。
除了海狮行动”之外，我认为德国人没有制定其他入侵英国的方案了。其他成功率更高的可选方案包括：
假设，纳粹德国计划从1940年开始发动“持久战”来占领英国，那么纳粹德国发动战争的必要因素包括：
通过潜艇、水面舰艇，以及远程和中程轰炸机来摧毁港内和出港的船只。若要执行该计划，德国必须击沉所有进出英国的船只，无论是在港口内的船只，还是距离英国领土200公里远公海上的船只。
通过空中力量来削弱英国雷达和防空系统的能力，包括英国皇家空军的战斗机。
通过空中力量来削弱英国铁路运输、发电、水资源配送和污水处理的能力。
通过空中力量来消灭树木，或者打击英国的农作物和牲畜。
通过空中力量来摧毁英国的采矿业、工厂和销售渠道。
想要实现这种效果需采取的更加出奇的办法包括：
不要对普通民众进行直接攻击，而是制造一种“不幸的”的附带伤害。
避免采取会导致美国参战的行动。
向美国提供公开而且有力的援助，借此来对抗日本。也许，德国可以在1942年向菲律宾派遣50万名士兵。你只要了解美德在20世纪30年代末所共同采取行动的效果，就会明白美德合作的力量之大了。
对于苏联，德国可以在占领英国后，将伊朗献给苏联，根据协议，苏联将会实现所有沙皇的梦想，那就是一个不冻港。我认为，苏联一定会十分乐见德国这么做的（就像早些年苏德练过瓜分波兰那样。）
向英国人民发动强大的政治舆论攻势。手段包括维希式占领、苏格兰“独立”和军事大赦等。德国要向英国人民表示，它发动战争只是为了对抗英国政府而已，而非英国人民。
结果，德国制造炸弹和军需品的速度能够超过世界其他国家（美国）制造军舰的速度。如果纳粹德国在1941年开始执行有力的进攻计划，那么到1943年初，英国的实力将会被严重削弱。
通过分析二战中对德国和日本本土的轰炸结果，我们可以预测，如果对英国连续两年进行狂轰滥炸，英国的民间和军队士气都会被严重削弱。在受到了德国两年的轰炸之后，英国的粮食储备、电力和发热能力将会下降到非常有限的水平，而且军事力量也会被削弱。
这时候，纳粹德国的政治宣传机器必须持续地向英国人民发声，让他们明白，入侵英国是不可避免的，而且纳粹德国对于平民伤亡的增加感到后悔。然后，纳粹德国开始入侵，并继续表示自己想要寻求一条“和平”的解决方案。
按照我描述的情况，到1943年，英国防空力量将会被消灭，而且纳粹德国将会“占领”英国的空域。
首先，德国需要提出爱尔兰无法拒绝的条件。然后，爱尔兰同意德国从爱尔兰的领土向北爱尔兰发动进攻，作为回报，在战争结束后，爱尔兰可以兼并北爱尔兰的土地。然后，假设德国控制了领空，并靠近了英国的水域时，北爱尔兰就成为德国屠杀英国军队的战场。英国将会在北爱尔兰地面和水面战场上，以及英国的本土上损失自己的队伍。而德国的进攻目标就是摧毁英国那“不可替代”的人力资源和物资。英国可能会让德国蒙受一些损失，并取得一些战术胜利，但是战争结果是肯定的：英国最终会失去北爱尔兰、大量士兵和弹药。实现这些目标可能需要一年的时间，也就是整个1943年。
当爱尔兰被德国拿下后，苏格兰也随之暴露。截至1944年，已经被德军包围3年的英国实力也随之变弱，而且苏格兰也被德军入侵。这时，驻扎在爱尔兰的德国空军要比英国皇家空军更靠近战场前线。更重要的是，驻扎在爱尔兰的德国空军距离英国/苏格兰边境非常近，而该边境是封锁来自北方援助/物资的一个关键点。如果德国人善待爱尔兰人，那么苏格兰也会有意建立一个“自治政府”（维希式政府）。当德国军队可以穿越英吉利海峡和爱尔兰海时，英国再也无法向北部派兵来阻止德国对苏格兰的入侵了。
随着苏格兰在1944年的陷落，被耗尽的英国别无选择，只能在1945年向德国投降。
通过这种深思熟虑而且“友好”的方法来入侵英国，对降低德国人员和资金损失是极为有效的。如果没有美国或者苏联的干预，德国对英国发动持久战，英国很难会幸存下来。
幸运的是，统领这些精干的德国/普鲁士总参谋部的人，不过是一个情绪化、毫无经验而且未经训练的下士罢了。想象一下，如果纳粹德国的领导人有俾斯麦的能力，那么战争结果会变成什么样子吧！